May 17, 2023

World Meteorological Organisation: Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the Met Office and other designated centres around the world for the period 2023-2027.

This report makes a number of probabilistic predictions about global mean near-surface temperatures, including

• 98% chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding that of 2016, the warmest year on record to date
• The annual average for each year between 2023 and 2027 to be 1.1-1.8°C higher compared with 1850-1900
• 66% chance of the average temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels in at least one year between 2023 and 2027

Journalists came to this online briefing to hear authors of the report talk about their conclusions and what they mean for climate change.

Speakers included:

Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction, Met Office Hadley Centre

Dr Leon Hermanson, Senior Scientist in Monthly to Decadal Prediction, Met Office Hadley Centre