November 18, 2024

What if net zero doesn’t mean net zero?

In a new study led by the University of Oxford and published in Nature, some of the researchers who developed the science behind net zero emissions have joined forces to show that misusing the definition will not actually stop global warming.

The paper demonstrates that using natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to reach net zero emissions will lead to continued warming. The science of net zero emissions does not include natural carbon sinks in the definition of net zero. Instead, the scientists argue, we must reach Geological Net Zero – i.e. balancing the flow of carbon into and out of the solid Earth, with one tonne of carbon dioxide committed to geological storage for every tonne still generated by any continued fossil fuel use.

The authors also stress the importance of protecting natural carbon sinks, including forests and oceans, both during and after the transition to Geological Net Zero, while accepting that protecting these sinks must not compensate for (or “offset”) ongoing fossil fuel use.

Journalists came to this SMC briefing to hear the scientists make their case.

Speakers included:

Prof Myles Allen FRS, Head of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford

Prof Kirsten Zickfeld, Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Simon Fraser University, Canada

Dr Glen Peters, Senior Researcher, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo

Prof Jo House, Reader in Environmental Science and Policy, University of Bristol