February 26, 2020

expert reaction to UK flooding

Some areas of the UK are continuing to experience flooding conditions, with flood warnings in place for over 90 locations as of 17:30 on 26th February.

Prof Paul Bates, Professor of Hydrology, University of Bristol, said:

“Unfortunately, flooding is already a regular occurrence in the UK.  Man-made climate change will make flooding worse in the future, but it may be some time before we can conclusively see this effect.  In the meantime, we have a problem right now with too many properties at risk.  One obvious way to mitigate future flood damage is to re-think our current plans for more building on floodplains.

“Whilst we’re seeing record water levels in particular places, the number of properties flooded so far is still quite a lot lower than the 55,000 that flooded in 2007 and the 17,000 that flooded in 2015, but still unacceptably high.”

Prof Grant Allen, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, University of Manchester, said:

“Put simply, there is a new normal that we need to get used to. The climate has changed and future change is already locked in to the Earth system for many decades. The UK is getting wetter according to long-term statistics. We expect to continue to see more extremes of all forms. Records are being reset with increasing frequency. The scale of further, more severe, future climate change depends on our willingness to face up to the difficult challenge of reducing carbon emissions and mitigating the on-the-ground impacts we have now been witnessing for many years. We may have to mitigate for this for many decades to come, regardless of how quickly we reduce emissions now. The changes already locked in to the climate system will not disappear by stopping all carbon emissions tomorrow, but we can reduce some of the even greater severity of future climate change if we act quickly. We are now paying the carbon tax we never paid, and some are paying a heavier price than others. The Stern report warned there would be an economic cost to climate change – this is it. We were warned. The science was, and remains, abundantly clear. There is no sensible counter-argument.”

Prof Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist at the University of Reading, said:

 “It is terrible news that some of the temporary defences on the River Severn were overtopped last night flooding homes and businesses and prompting rescues. With further rain on the way we are not out of the woods yet and there remains risk from completely saturated ground and swollen rivers.

“These floods are a reminder that we need to be vigilant against the changing risks from natural hazards in the UK. People need not only support and resources to make themselves safe but also the mechanisms to take action and work with others in their communities to plan for floods in future.”

Dr Margaret Currie, James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland, said:

“Once the waters have receded, the social and wellbeing impacts of flooding last much longer. Our research has discovered that flooding has lasting impacts on the economic situation and health and wellbeing of both individuals and communities which have been flooded. People who are currently at risk of flooding might want to consider some of these tips: 1) Have a home emergency plan in place, which would include what to do in a flood and other scenarios such as a fire; 2) Check that home insurance includes flood cover, and make sure that any changes to the T&Cs in the future do not change the type of cover you think you have; 3) Sign up to receive Floodline alerts – the service is free and messages can be received in different formats (by phone, SMS); 4) If SEPA (or bodies such as the Environment Agency where you are) make river level data for a water body near where you live publicly available use this resource – we found this data to be a source of reassurance to people; 5) Flooding usually happens quicker than people expected, get out quickly if advised to and check on neighbours if you can; and 6) Make use of publicly available resources such as flood risk maps to find out if a property you are considering buying is at risk of flooding.

“Statutory agencies and voluntary organisations that assist in flood prevention and recovery can also benefit from the following advice: in any future emergency, a wide variety of methods need to be used to communicate with the public, for example not to rely only on online communication because of power cuts and disruption to mobile phone networks. Householders could be helped to develop an emergency plan for example by local resilience groups, working in partnership with the local authorities and the emergency services. Homeowners often need advice about how they could make their home more flood resistant (i.e. barriers to getting flood water getting in) and resilient (minimising damage). There’s also a need for a more consistent approach from insurance companies, their loss adjustors and contractors, and the role of community groups, health services and local government in providing opportunities for people to get together should not be underestimated.”

Declared interests

None received.