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Irish scientists comment on potential US tariffs on pharmaceutical companies based in Ireland.
Prof John McHale, Established Professor and Head of Economics, University of Galway, said:
“The focus will now inevitably move to what retaliatory actions the EU will take. It is important to be pragmatic, notwithstanding the political pressures to respond. Now that Trump has imposed the 20 percent tariff, the rationale for retaliatory tariffs is to create a bargaining chip to negotiate a joint roll-back of tariffs. But you have to know your adversary. Rather than a joint roll-back, the much more likely scenario is that Trump will escalate. It is like the old story of the two boys caught fighting. When asked why, one answers: “It all started when he hit me back”. President Trump would seem to view the world like that boy.
One of the biggest surprises in Trump’s announcement is the way that the country-specific retaliatory tariffs were calculated. The expectation was that it would be based on a country-by-country analysis of existing tariff and non-tariff barriers. Instead it is based on country’s bilateral trade deficits with the United States. Essentially, it is a crude estimation of the size of the increase in the tariff that would be required to reduce the bilateral trade deficit by half. While it has some logic, it is based on some highly unrealistic assumptions, including that imports are hugely sensitive to prices, that prices are quite insensitive to tariffs and that there will be no offsetting changes in exchange rates. The economics behind all of these assumptions is highly questionable, but it gave them a quick and dirty method to come up with the differential tariffs. It will also complicate negotiations as it is impossible to address particular concerns that would have been behind more objective claims about the protectionist measures that the Trump administration finds objectionable.”
Prof Billy Melo Araujo, Professor of Law, Queen’s University Belfast, said:
“As it stands, pharmaceuticals have been exempted from the recent US tariff hikes. Should tariffs be applied in the future this could have a significant economic impact on Ireland as the pharma industry employs approximately 45000 people and its yearly exports to the US are valued at over 72 billion euros.”
Caitríona Mordan, ATIM (Advanced Technologies in Manufacturing) Cluster Manager, said:
“The potential impacts of this “America First” trade strategy are deeply concerning for Ireland’s manufacturing sector. If the U.S. moves forward with tariffs on EU goods—including those from Ireland—it will make Irish products more expensive in the U.S. market. That means reduced competitiveness, potential loss of market share, and ultimately, real risks to investment and employment—particularly in regions like the Midlands where manufacturing plays a central economic role.
Tariffs create additional cost burdens, fuel uncertainty, and threaten the stability of long-standing trade relationships. For Irish manufacturers—especially SMEs—this could result in lost contracts, squeezed margins, and delays to growth or hiring plans. It places added pressure on companies already managing global supply chain challenges.
Manufacturing is one of Ireland’s most important sectors, employing over 275,000 people and driving innovation, exports, and regional development. The U.S. is a key trading partner for Irish manufacturers, and any disruption to this relationship could have wide-reaching economic and social consequences.
ATIM—the Advanced Technologies in Manufacturing Cluster—is a collaborative platform with over 80 member companies spanning the entire manufacturing supply chain, from engineering and automation to advanced materials and digital technologies.
Funded by Enterprise Ireland and hosted by TUS, ATIM connects industry with academic, policy, and innovation partners to solve challenges, adopt new technologies, and compete globally. Right now, we are supporting our members to understand what these global trade shifts mean, and to take practical, proactive steps to reduce exposure and build resilience.
Our strength lies in collaboration—bringing together diverse manufacturing voices to respond to challenges as a united front.
Tariffs will increase costs and create a barrier to trade with one of our largest export markets. That could lead to reduced demand, disruptions to supply chains, and a cooling of future investment. For many companies—particularly those based in regional Ireland—this could mean scaling back operations or delaying expansion plans. The broader impact could be felt in communities that depend on these jobs and the businesses they support.
Manufacturing has been a cornerstone of Ireland’s success, especially in regions like the Midlands. But it’s success that can’t be taken for granted. At ATIM, we’re committed to helping manufacturers stay competitive, informed, and future-ready. With over 80 active members, we’re seeing firsthand how powerful collaboration can be. Whether it’s responding to policy changes or adopting advanced technologies, our message to industry is clear: you don’t have to face it alone.”
Dr Esmond Birnie, Senior Economist (Economic Research), Ulster University, said:
“Re. the Republic of Ireland (RoI) pharma it is remarkable just how big the pharma output and also RoI to USA trade is per capita. A small nation doing so much (partly obviously a product of low business taxation over the last 70 or so years). This was in its day a highly successful business and economic development model but all good things eventually come to end! Now that dependence on US inward investment particularly in pharma is become a vulnerability as the President’s comments e.g. to M. Martin in the Oval Office, demonstrated.
“In 2024 RoI exports c. £60bn worth of goods to USA and of those c. 2/3 were in pharma. To put that £60bn into perspective Irish national income (removing some of the “distortion” created by tax related behaviour) is about £250bn so total goods exports to the USA equivalent to one quarter of that. So likely very high exposure to the forthcoming Trump tariffs. (Incidentally, a lot of the US FDI into Northern Ireland has been in terms of SERVICES hence now, thankfully, much less exposure to the tariffs.)”
Matt Moran, Industry Expert (Independent Consultant); and former head of The Irish BioIndustry Association, said:
“It would seem that pharmaceuticals are exempt for now from the 20% tariff imposed on the EU. Of course this may change – difficult to predict. My view is that shifting production to the US would be far from trivial given the complexity and regulatory issues. The statements by SSPC make sense and given the timelines probably involved a renewed focus on innovation by the Biopharma and Life Sciences sector here makes good strategic sense. It is also important that the industry ensures that its manufacturing base is competitive and that it employs best in class digitisation and sustainability techniques – for example Pharma 5.0. Life Sciences is a global sector and Ireland needs to redouble its efforts to build partnerships right across the globe and to concentrate on building its own indigenous sector.”
Prof Damien Thompson, Scientific Director, SSPC: the Research Ireland Centre for Pharmaceuticals, University of Limerick, said.
“By investing in innovation, leveraging world-class research capabilities, and fostering robust international collaborations—particularly within Irish pharmaceutical research centres like SSPC—Ireland can maintain its competitive edge. This strategy will facilitate the development of new products that meet global demands, ensure a strong pipeline of talent, and highlight the urgent need for government intervention to produce more graduates with specialised skill sets.”
Jamie Guidera, Chief Operations Officer, SSPC: the Research Ireland Centre for Pharmaceuticals, University of Limerick, said:
“From the perspective of a state and industry funded pharmaceutical research centre like ours, the immediate implementation of these tariffs by the US raises serious concerns for the Irish and EU pharmaceutical landscape. Our sector is built upon international collaboration, delivering open research and fostering trade, all of which are potentially jeopardised by these measures. SSPC’s collaborative history with multinational and indigenous industry through sites here and overseas exemplifies Ireland’s commitment to fostering research, innovation, and adaptability. It is imperative that governments and industry work together to mitigate any negative impacts on access to medicines and the competitiveness of Irish and US pharmaceutical research and manufacturing.”
Declarations of Interest
None received