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expert reaction to Storm Bert

Scientists comment on Storm Bert. 

 

Dr Jennifer Keenahan, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, said:

“Storm Bert has formed as a deep low-pressure system in the Atlantic and will displace the current cold Arctic air mass as it approaches Ireland. This atmospheric clash is particularly significant as it will bring a dramatic shift from our current cold conditions to milder but more turbulent weather.

The storm’s timing is concerning because it will bring heavy rainfall onto already saturated ground.

From a structural engineering perspective, Storm Bert presents several critical concerns for our bridge infrastructure. The combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds creates multiple challenges for our bridges. The saturated ground conditions significantly increase the risk of scour around bridge foundations, where fast-moving water can erode the supporting soil beneath bridge piers. This is particularly worrisome when coupled with the intense rainfall predicted for this evening. The storm surge and wave action will create both lateral and vertical forces on bridge structures. These forces can be especially problematic as they can generate upward pressures on bridge decks. When combined with potential debris carried by flood waters, these forces can substantially increase the loads on bridge elements.”

 

Dr Mary Bourke, Associate Professor, Trinity College Dublin, said:

“The impact of Storm Bert may be significant for several reasons:

  1. ‘Intense’ rainfall indicates that the ground may not have time to absorb the rain as it falls (too much-too quickly). This will lead water moving over the land quickly.
  2. The current model outputs show that the heaviest rainfalls will fall in the uplands (mountains). These are steeper terrains and water will move quickly down these valleys.
  3. Intense rainfall in the mountains increases the risk of landslides (peat slides) in the mountains. 
  4. ‘rain-on-snow’ is an extra layer of risk. As the falling rain may speed up the snowmelt which will add to the overall volume of water moving down from the mountains to the towns and villages. 

To the best of my knowledge, ‘rain-on-snow’ events are not included in flood risk models in Ireland.”