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Scientists comment on data released by the ONS which suggests birth rates are at a record low.
Professor William Ledger, Head and Professor of the Discipline of Obstetrics & Gynaecology in the School of Women’s & Children’s Health, University of New South Wales, said:
“This report mirrors the experience of many Western and SE Asian countries, including Germany, Italy, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and, to some extent, China and India. There are many reasons for this decline which are well elucidated in the ONS paper. However while politicians seem universally to advocate a return to a higher birth rate in order to ‘sustain’ the population of young people who can then look after the old, a longer term view might see this decline as a large part of the solution to global warming, probably the biggest threat to the existence of humankind. People create carbon dioxide, and less people would begin to reverse our progression towards extinction. Smaller family sizes are not necessarily a bad thing.”
Prof Alison Campbell, Chief Scientific Officer at Care Fertility, said:
“Closely associated with the falling birth rate is that fact that the average age of becoming parents has been generally increasing for the last 50 years. This is driven by factors such as economics, societal changes and the rising cost of children. But, as age is critical when it comes to conception, choosing to start families later can be problematic. As people get older, and for women especially, their chance of naturally conceiving declines.
“As fertility specialists, we are seeing an increasing number of people wanting to preserve their fertility while they are younger to delay parenthood. National data shows that egg freezing and storage is the fastest growing treatment, increasing by 81% between 2019 and 2022 (HFEA). Although freezing eggs and sperm can be very successful, it cannot guarantee future parenthood.
“We can’t draw any solid conclusions from national data as to the real reasons for the falling birth rate as people’s choices and actions play into this. We don’t know how many people are choosing to have no babies, electing to have smaller families, needing or accessing fertility but it’s likely a mixture of all those things.”
Prof Bassel H.Al Wattar, Associate Professor of Reproductive Medicine and Medical Director of the Clinical Trials Unit, Anglia Ruskin University.
“The new data from the ONS reflect a worrying yet persistent downward trend of fertility and birth rates in England and Wales. This may be explained by the recent cost of living crisis and financial strain that could be dissuading couples from having more than two children per household. This is also compounded by the progressive reduction in available NHS funding for fertility treatments like IVF which is further contributing to the low fertility and birth rates in the UK as a whole. Many high income countries are seeing a similar worrying trend like Japan and South Korea which has a direct negative impact on the country’s GPD and productivity. The fertility replacement rate should stay close to 2.1 children per woman and the government could implement immediate interventions to help reverse trends such as offering longer paid parental leave, more funding for childcare for working parents, and more funding for fertility treatments in the NHS”
Prof Melinda Mills, Professor of Demography and Population Health and Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, said:
“England and Wales continues the trend of a drop in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and postponing children until after age 30. Countries such as Italy and Spain reached even lower levels (around 1.24-1.29) previously and South Korea currently has the lowest TRF in the world of 0.72 in 2022.
“Falling TFRs and postponement in having children to later ages is not surprising given recent trends. People are actively postponing or forgoing children due to issues related to difficulties in finding a partner, housing, economic uncertainty, remaining longer in education and particularly women entering and staying in the labour force. Some individuals also actively make the choice to remain childfree. However, there is evidence that postponing having children to later ages when the partners are less able to conceive results in increases in involuntarily childlessness as well. Linking the medical records from birth of those who were childless in millions of people in Finland and Sweden1, we found that the large increase in those countries was related to mental health and substance use for men and metabolic disorders linked to obesity for women.
“The structures such as economic security, housing and affordable childcare are essential for allowing people to have the number of children they would like, when they like. Pronatalist policies such as those recently enacted in Hungary with loans or tax incentives are not only expensive but have limited evidence that they will raise the overall fertility rate.”
Prof Brienna Perelli-Harris, Professor of Demography, The University of Southampton said:
“The recent decline in fertility in England and Wales is quite surprising, but it is also in line with fertility declines in other countries which until recently had relatively high fertility. The Nordic countries and the United States have also experienced record-breaking lows in the past few years.
“We are unsure whether the recent declines are due to postponement of childbearing, which can distort the total fertility rate, or an increase in childlessness.
“Our recent analysis of the Generation and Gender Survey2 suggests that young people are less likely to intend to have a child in the future. The proportion of 18-to 25-year-olds in the GSS who said they definitely do not intend to have a child approximately doubled compared to the same age group back in 2005-2007 (around 7% then compared to 15% today).
“The low fertility rates observed by the ONS may continue for some time into the future.”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2023
Declared interests
Prof Alison Campbell “Alison is a minor shareholder in Care Fertility”
Prof Bassel H.Al Wattar “No conflicts of interests to declare”
Prof Melinda Mills “I am a Trustee of the UK Biobank, on the Scientific Advisory Board of Our Future Health and Health and Retirement Survey US and Lifelines Biobank Netherlands. I do not see a conflict of this with this subject matter but provide it just in case.”
Prof Brienna Perelli-Harris “Funding for the GGS came from the ESRC (UKRI), so no industry links.”
Prof William Ledger: Nothing relevant to declare