select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
before the headlines
Fiona fox's blog
The Office for National Statistics (ONS), have released data on COVID-19 vaccination uptake in school pupils in England.
Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:
“I’ll draw attention to just one point. The uptake of a second vaccine dose is low, compared to first dose uptake, particularly in those aged 12 to 15. Even in the 16 and 17 year olds, the uptake of the second dose is quite a bit smaller than the first dose uptake. But it’s likely that many in those age groups, particularly the 12-15 year olds, weren’t even eligible for their second dose before 9 January, the last date included in this data release. First doses weren’t generally made available in to 12-15 year olds in England until 22 September 2021. The minimum gap between the first and the second dose for 12-17 year olds is 12 weeks (unlike for people aged 18 and over, where it’s 8 weeks). So no child aged 12-15, who didn’t have some special reason to be vaccinated before the main scheme started, could have become eligible for their second dose until 15 December, twelve weeks after 22 September. In fact the vaccination programme for 12-15 year olds didn’t get going particularly fast, so most 12-15 year olds who have had a first dose wouldn’t have become eligible for another until after the last date included in these figures, 9 January. That must be a major reason why uptake of second doses in that age group is so low. Those aged 16 and 17, who didn’t have a special reason to be vaccinated early, could have become eligible for a second dose by 12 November, 12 weeks after 20 August, the date that vaccinations were made generally available for that age group. So they would have had more opportunity to get their second dose before 9 January. But they couldn’t have had a booster yet, given the required gap of 3 months between second dose and booster, which is presumably why this bulletin doesn’t mention boosters.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Kevin McConway: “I am a Trustee of the SMC and a member of its Advisory Committee. I am also a member of the Public Data Advisory Group, which provides expert advice to the Cabinet Office on aspects of public understanding of data during the pandemic. My quote above is in my capacity as an independent professional statistician.”