August 22, 2024

expert reaction to modelling study estimating current and future deaths from hot and cold temperatures across Europe, as published in The Lancet Public Health

A study in the Lancet Public Health modelled current and future deaths from hot and cold temperatures across Europe.

Dr Emma Lawrance, Climate Cares Lead at the Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, said:

“Global warming won’t ‘save lives,’ as some misguided people suggest.

“This research estimates that the number of heat-related deaths will continue to ramp up if humans keep warming the planet, while the number of cold-related deaths will only decrease slightly.

“Estimating changes to heat and cold deaths is difficult – people don’t get ‘cold’ or ‘heat’ on their death certificate. But drawing on a huge dataset, the paper provides new insights into the changing risk of death with dangerous temperatures across Europe.

“It’s clear a hotter world is a deadlier world. With every tenth of a degree of warming from the burning of fossil fuels, we’ll see more deaths from extreme heat, fires, floods, and storms fueled by climate change, increased spread of mosquito-transmitted disease and poorer air pollution, among many other climate health impacts.”

Dr Madeleine Thomson, Head of Climate Impacts and Adaptation at Wellcome, said:

“This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives that we are putting at risk if we fail to act quickly enough against climate change.  And the predicted tripling of direct heat deaths is not even the full picture.

“Extreme heat kills but it also causes serious health harms. It has been linked to an increased risk of miscarriages and poorer mental health outcomes – both areas that urgently need more research.

“And then there are the indirect impacts. We have already seen how extreme heat events can cause crop failure, wildfire devastation, damage critical infrastructure and hit the economy – all of which will have knock-on effects on our lives.

“Europe, like the rest of the world, is facing a growing number of extremely hot days, and countries are not prepared for the impacts this will have on the health of their populations. This urgently needs to change.”

Dr Gary Konstantinoudis, Imperial Research College Fellow at the MRC Centre for Environment and Health, said:

“This high-quality study, using data from multiple European countries, provides valuable insights into the impact of non-optimal temperatures on non-accidental mortality.”

“The analysis is based on a previous Lancet paper¹ which assumes that the effect of temperature on all-cause non-accidental mortality is constant between 2000 and 2019.  Previous studies, including one with overlapping data² have reported a decrease in heat-mortality impact over time, due to factors including infrastructural changes and improved health care.  Not accounting for this is expected to overestimate the future impact of heat on mortality.

“According to the literature, it is expected that most estimated deaths are likely among individuals with underlying chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, or those with pre-existing mental health challenges.  Moving forward, it will be crucial to differentiate the specific impact of temperature on these conditions and to account for their evolving trends when making projections.”

¹ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00023-2/fulltext

² https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29272855/

Dr Leslie Mabon, Lecturer in Environmental Systems at The Open University, said:

“The results are broadly in line with what existing research has shown in multiple contexts around the globe – namely, that temperature extremes do not affect everyone equally, with the elderly and the least well-off being most at risk. What is especially striking is that the authors find clear differences in risk across country boundaries and also regional clusters of mortality risk. Temperature gradients do not respect borders, so as the authors point out, this shows how demographic and socio-economic factors influence the risk we face from temperature extremes. There are countermeasures we can take, which may be particularly effective if they are targeted towards the most vulnerable people and places. For example, the study points to investment in health infrastructure, the presence of heat- and cold preparedness plans, and the quality of the buildings we live and work in as factors that could reduce mortality under a changing climate.”

‘Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study’ by David García-León et al. was published in The Lancet Public Health at 23.30 UK time on Wednesday 21 August 2024.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00179-8

Declared interests

Gary Konstantinoudis: I have no interests to declare.

Leslie Mabon: I have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Madeleine Thomson: no interests to declare

Emma Lawrance: no interests to declare