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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 21 January 2022.
Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Tracking COVID-mention deaths by week of occurrence matters. Registration delays are longer in England & Wales than in Scotland. In the vaccine-era, tables on COVID-mention deaths by week of occurrence should heed ONS Infection Survey’s prevalence estimates some 2 weeks earlier. Hence, at England’s Alpha peak (during 27 Dec 2020 to 2 January 2021), 2.08% (95% CI: 2.0% to 2.2%) of the population tested positive for COVID-19; in the Delta-era, 0.61% (95% CI: 0.5% to 0.7%) of the population had COVID during 27 June to 3 July 2021 vs 1.44% (1.3% to 1.5%) during 26 September to 2 October 2021 with Delta peak (during 16 to 30 October 2021) at 2.02% (95% CI: 1.9% to 2.1%). In the Omicron era, England’s prevalence reached 2.83% (95% CI: 2.7% to 3.0%) during 13 to 19 December 2021 and had more than doubled to 6.85% (95% CI: 6.6% to 7.1%) during 31 December 2021 to 6 January 2022.
“Booster vaccinations and Omicron both accelerated thro’ December 2021, with Omicron dominant pre-Xmas and England’s proportion testing positive already higher during 10 to 16 December 2021 than the Alpha and Delta peaks.
“Resurgence in COVID-mention deaths (see Table) is evident from the week ended 31 December 2021 with a near-doubling in occurrences likely between the week ended 24 December and 7 January 2022 (when fully registered).
“The likely number of COVID-mention deaths that occurred in the week ended 14 January 2022 is around 1500, substantially higher than the weekly-peak in October 2021 of around 1000 deaths. The rise in COVID-mention death by week of occurrence continues at a slower rate – as the peak nears. In the week ended 21 January 2022, 1500-2100 COVID-mention deaths may have occurred (when fully registered).
“NB: In England & Wales, wave 1 accounted for 52,000 COVID-mention deaths (to nearest 1000), the peak weekly toll having been 8,350 deaths (nearest 10). Wave 2 in England & Wales accounted for 69% more COVID-mention deaths (88,000 to nearest 1000) with a weekly peak of 9,060 deaths (nearest 10). Wave 3 for England & Wales dates from mid-June 2021 but is shown below from the week ending 17 September 2021.
England & Wales: all ages [English schools went back on 1 September 2021]
“During the four weeks (ending 8 Oct; to ending 29th Oct 2021), COVID-mention deaths at 70+ years were 2,421 out of 3,262 at any age (74%); and during the four weeks (ending 5 Nov; to ending 26 Nov 2021) COVID-mention deaths at 70+ years were 2,553 out of 3,582 at any age (71%); but during the first four weeks of December 2021 (ending 3 Dec; to ending 24 Dec 2021), COVID-mention deaths at 70+ years were 2,051 out of 3,045 at any age (67%); before reverting to well over 70% again after Christmas (78%: 3,505/4,475).
“The December dip in the proportion of COVID-mention death aged 70+ years may be a combination of booster protection (benefitting the elderly and health/social care staff first) and citizens’ pre-Xmas heed to the advice of Professor Sir Chris Whitty to restrict and prioritize social contacts to protect those most vulnerable. Thereafter, the wider and rapid booster roll-out would seem to have restored the intrinsic age-gradient in COVID-mention deaths.”
COVID-mention deaths at 70+ years by week of occurrence, E&W: new format as of 18th Jan. 2022
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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