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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released the latest report from the COVID-19 infection survey, looking at antibody and vaccination data for the UK.
Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, The Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, said:
“The latest report from ONS on the antibody survey shows two important observations. Firstly, despite continuing high infections rates and continuing immunisation, though rather slowly at present, antibody levels have plateaued and even started to dip in all four UK nations. This is consistent with what we can expect that antibody positivity declines with time. This is most obvious for England for the older age groups. For example in the 60 to 64 year age group about 97.9% have had both and 98.7% have had at least one dose of vaccine and presumable a significant proportion of both vaccinated and unvaccinated have had an infection. Yet Ab positivity has fallen to 88.0% and is still declining from a peak close to 98% in late May. So we can see very clearly that without a booster dose and probably even after a booster dose with time Ab levels will continue to fall. However, the exact relationship between Ab levels and protection is still unclear. Although there is a strong relationship between levels of neutralising Antibody soon after immunisation and vaccine effectiveness over coming weeks there is still uncertainly about the relationship after antibody levels several months later and protection.
“The other observation is that in the 16-to-24-year age group only 81.4% of people have been estimated to have had at least one dose of vaccine. Yet despite this 95.6% are estimated to have antibody. So of the 18.6% of individuals who have not had vaccine 76% have also got antibodies presumable from an infection. Given what we know about the disappearance of antibody with time this means the large majority of unvaccinated people in this age group have already had the infection and will have similar protection against infection than if they had been immunised.
“In terms of vaccine policy these observations would argue that more priority be given to boosting older and more vulnerable individuals than on improving take up in the 16 to 24 age group. However, the greatest priority remains persuading those older and more vulnerable individuals who have so far not come forward for their primary course to do so.”
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK: 27 October 2021
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