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The record of the discussion that took place at SAGE’s ninety-sixth meeting has been published.
Prof Jim Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and Professor of Structural Biology, University of Oxford, said:
“The SAGE minutes as published neither call for plan B now nor urge sticking to Plan A.
“The minutes confirm that SAGE does not expect the daily hospital admission to reach Jan 21 levels under plan A.
“The minutes outline that if the government decides to implement plan B, then what measures and how they should be implemented are being analysed.
“The minutes suggest that the government at the that time of the minutes has not yet established what things would trigger plan B.
“An important message here is that Delta has made it harder to bring spread under control, especially since the UK has decided to have high levels of infection.
“The minutes warn of the danger of further more rapidly spreading mutants or the risk of vaccine escape; both are risks but not currently reality.
“SAGE minutes suggest a committee doing its best to give informed advice to government on the costs and benefits of action. It is for our elected representatives to decide what to do.
“I would draw attention to:
(1) SAGE emphasis on the risks to pregnant women (and their unborn children) from covid19. Pregnant women (and their unborn children) are considerably safer being vaccinated; not being vaccinated runs a higher risk of serious illness.
(2) SAGE emphasises that Government messages about people with coughs and sneezes staying home will protect lives.
“The later two points could be usefully emphasised by the press.”
Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:
“The SAGE minutes taken together show that the scientific community continue to present the Government with evidence that measures introduced now are likely to avoid more restrictive controls later. They also recognise that high Covid-19 rates on top of a Winter season of cold and flu are likely to have a significant effect if not dealt with quickly, but that we risk entering in an unknown, and potentially perfect storm of three respiratory illnesses simultaneously circulating widely.
“They note that among the possible measures for reducing Covid-19 prevalence, working from home would likely have the biggest effect on cutting case numbers, and various measures including the Government’s ‘Plan B’ taken together would avoid more harsh restrictions being necessary.
“SAGE notes that the risks of cold, flu and Covid spreading and infecting people at the same time are likely to be high and represents a significant challenge over the winter. Notably, they also recognise that predicting numbers of infections is difficult and that infection prevention and control in healthcare settings is important, although this has been undermined by recent UKHSA guidance to remove enhanced cleaning from healthcare settings.
“SAGE notes that some of the easiest measures could be the most important. In addition to working from home which would have the biggest effect on reducing Covid-19 spread, SAGE also notes that a culture of ‘presenteeism’ among office workers is likely to be contributing to wider prevalence of cold and flu, and comment that these respiratory illnesses should be treated similarly to Covid-19 by staying at home. Reducing presenteeism would fit well with the government’s manifesto commitment to “encourage flexible working” and will inform any consultation to make this ‘the default unless employers have good reason not to’.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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