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Scientists comment on Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico.
Dr Helen Hooker, Flooding, Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones Research Scientist, University of Reading, said:
“Hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which is experiencing record-breaking ocean temperatures.
“Milton developed incredibly quickly and rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. A drop of around 47 millibars was recorded in just 7 hours, making Milton the most rapidly intensifying hurricane since Wilma in 2005.
“Climate change has contributed in three main ways to the worsening impacts of hurricanes:
“By increasing ocean temperatures as they absorb heat from the atmosphere, giving extra energy to the storm. This contributes to rapid intensification and a higher category hurricane with stronger wind speeds.
“Sea levels have already risen and will continue to do so, making storm surge impacts worse. Higher water levels will penetrate further inland, affecting more people.
“Our warmer atmosphere holds more water, meaning heavier rainfall. More intense rainfall on top of a higher storm surge combines to worsen impacts.”
Dr Xiangbo Feng, Joint Research Scientist in Tropical Cyclones, University of Reading, said:
How does climate change impact extreme weather?
“Climate change influences extreme weather via different pathways.
Is climate change making hurricanes more common/worse?
“Climate science research finds that the current climate change pattern is shifting the number of hurricanes in the north Atlantic further higher up. This upward trend is clearly seen in observations over the past 4-5 decades. Our warming climate also strengthens the intensity of tropical storms. It is likely that the proportion of major hurricanes will increase in the future with the warming trend. Note that there is still uncertainty in the frequency and intensity of hurricane for the future. But, for sure, climate change will worsen the impacts of hurricanes, such as excessive rainfall, and storm surges and high waves related to mean sea level rise.
How does Hurricane Milton compare to others in the region?
“In North Atlantic, since 1960, a CAT5 hurricane is seen about every two years. What makes Hurricane Milton stand out is its location when it reaches and maintains such high strength. It is very rare to see a CAT5 hurricane appearing in Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Milton also has a very slow traveling speed. This allows the storm to stay longer over the ocean and extract sufficient energy from the sea in order to maintain such strength. But this may also mean longer time for people to prepare and mitigate the impact.
What is particularly worrying about this hurricane?
“It is how long the high intensity will last. Because the ocean, Gulf of Mexico, has been warmed for months, there are plenty of heat energy available underneath. Also, the steering flow has been slow, which may help hold Hurricane Milton for a longer time over the warm ocean. It will be even more worrying if the upper-level westerly winds become stronger and shear to south during this period, which, in this case, will further strength the hurricane system related to stronger vertical temperature gradient.”
Prof Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health, University College London, said:
“Florida should have been braced for catastrophic impacts from Hurricane Milton, especially storm surge and rainfall flooding. The possible disaster is sadly unsurprising, since Florida sits in the usual hurricane zone and it is now hurricane season. Yet the state permitted building development in dangerous locations and does not always support people who need help over the long-term to be ready for hazards.
“Human-caused climate change is strengthening hurricanes while reducing their frequency. Hurricane Milton shows exactly the climate change influence we would expect from higher storm intensity.
“Given Florida’s hurricane history including previous storms in this area in 1848, 1921, and 1946, they should have been much more prepared over the long-term. Planning decisions creating dangers and long-term lack of services to assist people who cannot help themselves for known hazards are all about choices to make disasters.”
Prof Liz Stephens, Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading, said:
“The wide area of intense winds and rainfall from Hurricane Milton will mean that many communities in Florida who are still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Helene will be affected again by this latest storm, even though Milton is expected to make landfall further south.
“Hurricane Milton is forecasted to track across Florida and out into the North Atlantic Ocean. This means that we are not expecting to see the same flash flooding and mudslide impacts as Helene in areas such as the Appalachian mountains, caused by Helene decaying over land.
“Rising sea surface temperatures as a result of climate change are fuelling the intensity of hurricanes, and the warmer atmosphere can carry more water. This means that the storms which do form are becoming more impactful.
“Further research is needed to understand how the risk of consecutive hurricanes is changing, as these clusters of events can greatly stretch resources for emergency preparedness and response.”
Prof Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading, said:
“Hurricane winds grab people’s attention, but flooding is probably the biggest concern with Milton. Winds of 150mph can easily destroy buildings and cause injuries and fatalities if people are caught out in the open by flying debris.
“There are three types of floods that cause the biggest damage – storm surge causing coastal flooding, flash floods from the extremely heavy rain, and river floods as all that water rushes down channels and onto floodplains.
“People’s attention may be turned to the sky, but emergency planners will be worried about what is coming from below.”
Prof John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, said:
How does climate change impact extreme weather?
“Weather extremes increase rapidly for even apparently small increases in global temperature – this is true for heatwaves, floods, droughts and intensity of hurricanes.
Is climate change making hurricanes more common/worse?
“Many aspects of Helene and Milton are absolutely what we expect from climate change – hurricanes need warm oceans to form, and record-breaking ocean temperatures are fuelling these devastating storms. Warm air holds more water, giving heavier rain and more flooding. Increased sea-levels from climate change give more coastal flooding when hurricanes create a temporary “storm surge” rise in sea level. Finally, climate change can give shorter gaps between extreme events allowing less time to recover – we’re now seeing people affected by Helene now having to prepare for Milton. If we rapidly phase out fossil fuels, we can stop these extremes getting much worse but will have to continue to cope with the new climate we have created and will likely have to cope with rising sea levels for centuries.
What is particularly worrying about this hurricane?
“As a climate scientist, and a parent, every extreme weather event is now a reminder of the catastrophe we will face if we do not rapidly phase out fossil fuels. The tragedy is that climate scientists have been warning of this for decades. Rapid action is critical. Most people in the UK want more action on climate change and underestimate how much other people do. We have solutions and rapid action will save trillions.”
Declared interests:
Prof Ilan Kelman: No interests to declare
Prof Liz Stephens: “I also work for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre”
Prof John Marsham: “I receive funding from UKRI, FCDO and the Met Office”
Prof Hannah Cloke: “works with and advises the Met Office, ECMWF and Environment Agency.”
Dr Xiangbo Feng: Nothing to declare
For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.