April 20, 2023

expert reaction to European State of the Climate 2022 report

The European State of the Climate 2022 report has been published by Copernicus.

Prof Chris Merchant, National Centre for Earth Observation and University of Reading, contributor to the report (lake and sea temperatures) and lead of the UK Earth Observation Climate Information Service, said:

“The report also shows the warm temperatures of inland waters and coastal waters round much of Europe, especially in August at the height of summer. As well as impacts on nature and recreational use, unusually warm water bodies can have impacts on industry and electricity generation. Water bodies are used for cooling, which becomes less effective when the water warms.

“It is not a competition between mitigation and adaptation. While we need adaptation, we cannot adapt our way out of the climate crisis indefinitely. Ultimately, fossil fuels need to stay in the ground to stabilise the climate.”

Prof Daniela Schmidt, Professor in Earth Sciences, University of Bristol and Cabot Institute, said:

“Climate change impacts are here now and we need to invest to adapt to these while increasing our efforts on mitigation. We are clearly not prepared for droughts like we have seen in the last year, given the losses in agriculture, scorched plants and fish in dwindling rivers,  the impact on transport on rivers, and the thousands of human deaths.

“Water scarcity is one of the key risks we have identified for Europe in the last IPCC report and we have many adaptation options available today by changing supply and demand. Some of these are investments into our infrastructure which will take lead time but they also include teaching people and companies about land cover change, water savings and efficiency.”

Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said:

“Fluctuations in weather patterns meant conditions in 2022 were ripe for hot and dry extremes across Europe with unusually clear conditions meaning less rain or snow, drier ground and more baking of the surface by sunshine. However, the higher levels of greenhouse gases supercharged extremes of heat, making the atmosphere thirstier, depleting the soil of its moisture so it’s blown away by the wind, and intensifying rainfall events in remote locations elsewhere. So while low river levels and dry soils set off alarm bells for water shortages as the planet continues to warm, the more intense flows of water from one region to another mean that severe flooding as seen in 2021 over parts of Europe are an equal concern.

“Coincidentally, just over 100 years ago a drought also gripped western Europe¹, and if these historical wind patterns were reproduced today the degree of aridity would be magnified by human caused warming of climate since this event. The future will bring a further intensification of hot and dry extremes in some years but also wet extremes with flooding in other years, like we saw in 2021, or even in the same year, since a warmer atmosphere intensifies the hydrological cycle, moving water more effectively from one region to another. It is only with sustained, massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that a further amplification of hot, dry and wet weather extremes, well beyond those seen in recent years, can be moderated.”

¹ doi:10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021

The Copernicus European State of the Climate 2022 report is available here from 7am UK time on Thu 19 April 2023.

Declared interests

Prof Daniela Schmidt: “No competing interest.”

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.