August 24, 2014

expert reaction to eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano

A small eruption under an ice cap began at the Bárðarbunga volcano, following numerous earthquakes in the region.

Further comments (see below for earlier comments) from Prof David Rothery, Professor of Planetary Geosciences, Open University:

“With no signs yet that yesterday’s likely subglacial eruption NE of Bárðarbunga, under the Dyngjujokull glacier, has broken to the surface, attention today is likely to return to the Bárðarbunga caldera itself. There were two earthquakes bigger than magnitude 5.0 in the six hours after midnight GMT. They were 5 to 6 km deep, and do not necessarily mean that an eruption is impending. However volcanic tremor is high and if an eruption was on the way this could be how it begins.

“I understand that the flight exclusion zone over the inmediate area is likely to remain, as a sensible precaution. Even if there were to be a major eruption, it would not necessarily produce a high ash column, so the likelihood of interruption of transatlantic and European air travel remains low.”

Dr Derek Rust, Senior Lecturer in the University of Portsmouth’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: 

“The eruption at present is confined beneath an ice cap larger than any others outside of Antactica and Greenland. Only if and until the eruption melts its way through the ice cap will there be a wider threat to aviation. The increasing volume of melted water trapped by unmelted may eventually be released in a catastrophic glacial outburst flood.”

Dr Matt Watson, Reader in Natural Hazards, University of Bristol, said:

“A small eruption at Bardarbunga, Iceland is currently in progress. The eruption appears to be along a fissure and is under several hundred metres of ice, meaning no emission of ash at this time.”

The Icelandic Met Office released a statement:

“A small lava-eruption has been detected under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The Icelandic Coast Guard airplane TF-SIF is flying over the area with representatives from the Civil Protection and experts from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences. Data from the equipment on board is expected later today. Data from radars and web-cameras is being received, showing no signs of changes at the surface. The estimate is that 150-400 meters of ice is above the area. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.”

Prof David Rothery, Professor of Planetary Geosciences, Open University, said:

“Reports from Iceland this afternoon 23 Aug speak of a small subglacial lava eruption, which I think is from the dyke intruded NE of Bardarbunga. The aviation warning has been raised from orange to red (the highest) but this does not indicate that an ash column has yet been erupted. I think this remains unlikely at the site of the current eruption,  away from the main caldera, but is a sensible precaution.”

Declared interests:

None declared