May 27, 2021

expert reaction to comments from Matt Hancock that more than half and up to three quarters of new UK COVID-19 cases could be of the B.1.617.2 ‘Indian’ variant

The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, told a Downing Street press briefing this afternoon that up to three quarters of new COVID-19 cases in the UK could be of the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India.

Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The higher proportion of the variant cases is at least in part due to the very low numbers of cases overall, that have resulted in the very low overall disease burden we see today.  Thus even small outbreaks would produce a much higher proportion.  It also reflects, at least in part, the fact that many of the communities into which it was first introduced are ones where conditions for higher rates of transmission (with higher density households, people working in jobs that make physical distancing difficult).  Given that current estimates suggest the vaccine is less effective against this variant (particularly for those with only one dose), and that many working age adults are still unvaccinated or have had only one dose, then continued spread of this variant can only be expected.  Evidence that it may also be inherently more transmissible must be monitored closely but is not yet definitive.  Importantly we do not yet have evidence that suggests that this variant causes substantially more severe disease in vaccinated individuals.  We must still be wary of contacts between the many who are still unvaccinated, especially those who are at higher risk of severe COVID – this is only likely to become more of a problem if cases do continue to rise, increasing the probability that they become infected.”

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