December 12, 2022

expert reaction to cold weather in the UK and climate trends

In case useful, here are some comments from scientists on the current cold weather in the UK.

Prof Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate System Science at the University of Reading, said:

“We will still get cold weather events in the future even as climate warms – they may become less frequent, but they will still cause disruption when they occur.  The challenge is to make sure we remain prepared even as events become less frequent – a reduction in frequency potentially makes them more disruptive when they happen.

“Climate change disrupts circulation patterns, so there is the potential for some types of extreme cold events (“beast from the east”) to become more frequent – although this is speculative.  The key point is that higher average temperatures don’t mean that cold events are no longer an issue.”

Prof Joanna Haigh, Distinguished Research Fellow, Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said:

“One of the lovely things about British weather is its variability, due to our location on the edge of an ocean in mid-latitudes. Under climate change this will continue, with relatively cold and hot spells, but the average temperature will rise.”

Prof Lizzie Kendon, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said:

“As our climate warms our winters in the UK are becoming warmer on average which is already leading to a reduction in the number and severity of cold extremes we experience. Although this trend will continue under further global warming, the UK can still expect to experience cold spells of weather, like we’re seeing now, due to the natural variability of the British weather. Although becoming less frequent, days below freezing known as ice days will still be possible in the future although they will be rarer.”

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