February 28, 2014

expert reaction to BBC exclusive on badger culls in Gloucestershire and Somerset

The BBC reported that an independent scientific assessment, commissioned by the government, of the previous year’s pilot badger culls concluded that they were not effective. 

Dr Rosie Woodroffe, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Zoology, said:

“TB is a very serious problem for farming families and the farming industry, and it demands an effective solution. Like many, I anxiously await the full report of the Independent Expert Panel, which will doubtless contain detail on a topic where detail has turned out to be vitally important in the past. Nevertheless, the primary conclusions, reported by the BBC, are very clear: the Independent Panel has concluded that the culls missed their targets for both effectiveness and humaneness.

“It’s important to understand that these weren’t just arbitrary performance targets. In particular, culling licences required that marksmen kill at least 70% of local badgers within six weeks – because scientific evidence suggested that killing fewer badgers, over a longer period, could lead to increases in cattle TB rather than reductions.

“What we’ve seen is that that 70% target was missed by a wide margin – these are more accurate and more precise estimates than we’ve had before, and they show that less than half of the badgers were killed in both areas. And so, the benefits of these culls in terms of controlling cattle TB are likely to be much smaller than expected – indeed it’s quite likely that cattle TB risks in the culling areas may have gone up rather than down.

“I think these findings should draw greater attention to other approaches to tackling this terrible problem. Stricter controls on cattle-to-cattle transmission are hard for farmers, but they do seem to be working, and there’s always more that can be done. Badger vaccination is less risky than culling, and also cheaper, but it hasn’t been tested widely enough to be confident of its benefits for cattle. I think that such a test looks even more worthwhile now that these pilots have so clearly demonstrated the challenges of delivering cost-effective and humane badger culls.”

Prof Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, said:

“If today’s BBC report is correct and it is estimated that fewer than half of the badgers were removed in each of the pilot culls, this is worrying.  The licensing target was the removal of at least 70% of resident badgers (based on data from repeated widespread proactive culling in the Randomised Badger Culling Trial).  It is not a linear process whereby removing 35% of badgers gives half the benefit of removing 70%.  Removing less than half risks increasing cattle TB within the pilot cull areas due to culling-associated changes in badger behaviour. Such increases were observed in the Randomised Badger Culling Trial associated with the so-called “reactive” culling strategy.”

Prof Robbie McDonald, Chair in Natural Environment, Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, said:

“The Independent Expert Panel is comprised of highly respected authorities in their fields. This is a complex and sensitive subject and it is essential that we hear their conclusions about humaneness and effectiveness directly. Therefore, I look forward to seeing their fully and officially published report as soon as possible.”