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The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has announced a series of ways in which lockdown measures will be relaxed from July 4th, including the relaxing of social distancing rules and the reopening of numerous facilities and businesses.
Dr Gabriel Scally, Visiting Professor of Public Health, University of Bristol, said:
“Getting the country back to work and the economy into recovery is extremely important and it would be great to relax a lot of the social distancing measures if it was safe to do so.
“There is considerably greater risk from droplets spread at 1 m as compared to 2 m. This is particularly true indoors. But it is, of course, also dependent on the risk of encountering another person who is infectious with COVID-19.
“Unfortunately there are still an estimated 4,300 new cases every day according to the MRC Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge (https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/) . To relax a wide range of protective measures at the present time risks upsurges in the infection in very many places.
“There are two extremely important conditions that should be satisfied before there is any significant further relaxation in the protective measures.
Firstly, the number of estimated cases of new infection every day should be in the hundreds not thousands and should be heading downwards.
Secondly, the much needed Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support (FTTIS) system should be up and running fully.
“We know that there is not going to be an app available any time soon, despite enthusiastic promises and the emphasis on how important it was going to be. The absence of the app makes it all the more important to have robust, locally managed FITTS systems. Instead, we are told, the centralised testing and tracing system is not going to be fully functional until the autumn.
“The situation is not the same across the whole UK. In Scotland and Northern Ireland there are very few new cases and in some regions of England the level of infection continues to be low. It might therefore be possible to take a very different approach in different parts of the UK.
“In summary: this is not the time to be relaxing restrictions, it is the time to be getting a working, locally based FTTIS in place.”
Dr Gail Carson, Director of Network Development at ISARIC (International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium), and Consultant in Infectious Diseases, University of Oxford, said:
“I would like to hear in parallel what the plans and steps being taken now are to plan for the winter when we will have flu circulating and other respiratory diseases.
“I expect that with better respiratory hygiene and hand hygiene that circulation of other winter respiratory infections will decrease but outbreaks teach us to – assume nothing.
“A few months ago I suggested the type of approach in planning where one works backwards from a worst case scenario and reflects on how to avoid it occurring by guiding the decisions that are made now. We are indeed in a unique situation – trying to recover, respond and prepare all at the same time. “
Prof Cath Noakes, Professor of Environmental Engineering for Buildings at the University of Leeds, said:
“It remains the case that 2m is safer than 1m, but in some cases mitigation measures can be taken to reduce risks at a closer distance. The announcement by the Prime Minister today recognises the critical importance of the mitigation measures that will be necessary.
“Business owners and employers should ensure that spaces are well-ventilated, with air flow from windows or a mechanical ventilation system diluting any pathogen spread in the air.
“The way people sit and stand can have an impact on the way the virus spreads. If people are face-to-face, they are at an increased risk compared to being side-by-side or back-to-back. People should still try to maintain greater distances when they are face-to-face.
“Duration of exposure is important. A brief exposure at close distance is unlikely to pose a significant risk, but prolonged duration in an enclosed space is much more risky.
“As we have seen in the supermarkets, physical screens and barriers can be installed. People can wear face coverings. Employers can use technology to reduce contact between members of the public and staff. In the hospitality sector, there are apps where people can pre-order food and drink. The time employees and the public spend in crowded or busy environments increases the risks they face. Employers will need to think about steps to safeguard their staff, particularly those working with the public.
“And all of this is influenced by the level of virus in the community. If we can keep the overall level of infection down, the role of mitigation eases. Put simply, the chance of coming into contact with someone who is infected – or touching a surface they have contaminated – is low when the level of infection is low. That’s why reducing social distancing and relaxing other measures need to be underpinned by an effective test, trace and track system, to contain any outbreaks of the disease.”
Dr Shaun Fitzgerald FREng, Royal Academy of Engineering Visiting Professor at the University of Cambridge, says:
“The key thing about reducing the risk of transmission is that it is not all about the distance, whether that be 2m or 1m. There are other mitigation measures which are available including: limiting the duration of close proximity; limiting the number of people in a given space; limiting the number of contacts between households; use of face coverings; use of screens; increasing rates of ventilation; talking more quietly; orientation of one person to another; use of technology to reduce contact such as more transactions or ordering things from your phone; and of course regular cleaning and hand-washing. If we think of all these potential mitigation measures as levers available to help control the pandemic, then I can understand why the particular combination chosen at any moment in time might vary depending on the circumstances and of course where we are on the curve.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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