October 28, 2011

expert reaction as the world’s population approaches 7 billion

With the world’s seven billionth baby supposedly about to be born, experts gave their views on approaching this milestone.

Prof Mark Maslin, Director of the Environment Institute at UCL, said:

“We live in a world with enough food and fresh water for 7 billion people but still 8 million children die of starvation and preventable diseases each year, while 800 million people go to bed each night still feeling hungry and over 1000 million people do not have access to clean safe drinking water. It is not the number of people in the world that is the problem but our inability to distribute and share the immense global wealth. Hence the UN predictions of 9 billion people by 2050 in itself is not a problem if we can develop systems to allow everyone to enjoy the success of the global economy.”

Prof Douglas Kell, Chief Executive of the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), said:

“A global population of 7 billion is just a staging post to even higher numbers of people on our planet. With a population forecast to reach at least 9 billion by 2050 it is clear that we are facing critical challenges in food, energy and health. Personally I am optimistic for the future. Bioscience in particular is already working to address the most pressing issues – improving food security by raising product yields and quality and protecting crops and farm animals from disease, weaning ourselves off fossil fuels by finding sustainable ways to harness plant biomass for fuel and other products such as chemical, and gaining a better understanding of the ageing process to help support us all to remain healthy and active as we get older.

“While we should not be complacent about science or technology overcoming all the problems we face, there is every reason to be optimistic about the contributions that biological sciences can make to the solution of these kinds of problems for each and every one of the 7 billion people who now share our planet.”

Prof Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development at Imperial College London, said:

“Nearly 1 billion of the 7 billion are chronically hungry. That is a disgrace. It is technically feasible to produce enough food for an extra 2-3 billion, but diets in emerging countries are changing. More people eat livestock products and that requires more grain production. There is increased demand for biofuel crops, fertiliser prices have skyrocketed, land and water are become scarcer and degraded, and global warming threatens food production in the developing countries.

“To cope with these challenges and to respond to the extreme weather events caused by climate change means we have to double food production by 2050. Most important of all, we have to ensure the poor have access to the extra food. A tall order indeed. But perfectly possible, given the political will.”

Prof Guy Poppy, Director of Multidisciplinary Research and Professor of Ecology at the University of Southampton, said:

“The birth of the 7 billionth citizen is evidence of human ability to successfully continue to adapt. However the challenge of continuing to have food, energy and water security whilst minimising our environmental footprint is great. The solutions will only come from using knowledge from many disciplines being pieced together to allow informed and objective decision making by individuals, organisations and governments.”

Prof Robert Winston, Professor of Science and Society at Imperial College London, said:

“We must treat the UN warning of 15 billion by 2100 with caution. Such predictions are notoriously inaccurate, and their call for urgent action to reduce population is scientifically somewhat dubious.

“By far the most important things to ensure for stability and health of future population are better education, better rights for women, stable government, improved hygiene, and clean and reliable water supplies.

“It is therefore essential that the developed world, including Britain, does not reduce its overseas aid. I find extremely worrying David Cameron’s recent indication that he might do just that.”

Prof Jules Pretty, Professor of Environment and Society at the University of Essex, said:

“Although population appears at one level to be a problem of too many people, it is actually their consumption patterns that threaten the planet’s limited resources. The Earth cannot supply enough if all 7 billion people were to consume at the levels currently enjoyed by the rich countries. Yet aspirations are converging on consumption that is unsustainable. A prosperous and contented future for all is possible – but only if the affluent find new ways of consuming that have a low impact on the environment.”