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A few journalists have asked about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during festivals and the upcoming bank holiday, so here are some comments from scientists in case useful.
Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:
“There is conflicting evidence as to the impact of mass events on community transmission of Covid-19. On the one hand, events like Wimbledon and the British Grand Prix appear not to have fuelled greater transmission than is normally seen in the community. However, it seems that some recent music festivals and the European Football Championship were engines of spread and in the case of the football, we can assume that there was a lot of celebrating and commiserating done in close quarters in bars and pubs, not just at the stadium.
“It seems that the sort of inter-personal contact typical in the mosh pit and crowd surfing, is probably more like we would see in a pub showing the football than at Wimbledon Centre Court.
“Music festivals provide an opportunity to import the virus from around the country, as appears to have happened in Newquay with the Boardmasters Festival recently. But they also allow it to be spread further afield when everyone eventually goes home.”
Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:
“The key trigger points at a mass gathering like a festival will be in the indoor settings. Where festival goers are in a field, even in large numbers, the transmission risks will remain relatively low. It is the indoor shared spaces that are key, such as marquees, tents, or shared cars and use of public transport to and from the event.
“Looking at England hospital admission 1-7 August data by age, it shows that 25-34 year olds were the second highest number of admissions (13.8%), only slightly behind aged 75-84 year olds (14.2%). Thus, in younger populations with lower coverage of vaccination, there are still large numbers experiencing severe COVID19 symptoms. Long COVID is also known to be prevalent even in individuals who suffer relatively mild initial infections.
“In terms of reducing risks at festivals, individuals should accept a COVID19 vaccination when offered, ideally receiving the second dose a few weeks before the event. The use of masks would be helpful, along with ensuring closed spaces are well ventilated (for example leaving any doors and windows open).
– Reference for hospital admission data –
See screenshot, from Admissions Analysis by Age Group Supplement – 12 August 2021 (XLSX, 30KB)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist, Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, said:
“A lot of this depends on how much we can live with this virus going forwards – and this means different things to different people.
“Let’s take 10 university friends who go to an outdoor concert together – all doubly vaccinated with the current vaccines (which are not specifically designed against the delta variant) but no masks or other COVID-19 precautions.
“A week later 2 develop symptoms and test positive for COVID-19, and two are infected asymptomatically when they self-test after hearing their friends’ results. The other 6 test negative. Three months later one of the symptomatic friends still cannot smell or taste his/her food properly, and one of the asymptomatic friends has developed intermittent tinnitus.
“Is this an acceptable risk?
“Let’s say that these friends were still at university during this concert visit and during the week before symptoms started they were attending university lectures and practicals. The following week, as well as the 4 friends that test positive, a further 20 contacts (all fully vaccinated) test positive – with a similar proportion developing symptomatic/ asymptomatic infections and long COVID symptoms 3 months later.
“These numbers are not unrealistic – other groups of 10 might experience more or fewer symptoms/ complications.
“Is it worth it? If all the 10 friends masking reduces these case numbers to half or even a quarter – is it worth it then?
“Some may say ‘yes’ with masking and ‘no’ without masking. Others may say yes without any masking at all, e.g. if it is their favourite band and they want to dance – but doing this with masks on is just too uncomfortable.
“In this situation with variable individual approaches to risk, you can only decide what is best for you. Getting fully vaccinated and wearing a mask is relatively easy.
“Getting your friends to do it also is harder. Not going at all and watching it on streaming video is safest but may be the least fun for many.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see the UK Events Research Programme (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/information-on-the-events-research-programme/information-on-the-events-research-programme) results as being particularly applicable to multiple other events, with a rapidly evolving, seeding and spreading virus, with many different host and environmental variables that are themselves constantly changing – as the recent data from the ‘perfect storm’ in Cornwall has demonstrated:
“People need to make their own risk assessments – but these are admittedly very difficult to make accurately without knowing your vaccine responses, those of others, as well as what viral loads people around you might be shedding at any point – and then your individual susceptibility to more severe or long COVID complications.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
None received.