October 23, 2021

expert comment about SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling for scenarios for COVID-19 autumn and winter 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021

A paper from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) has been published that summarises modelling for scenarios for autumn and winter 2021-2022.

Prof Graham Medley, Chair of SPI-M, and Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“It would neither be correct to say that SAGE and SPI-M told the government to move to plan B now, nor that SAGE and SPI-M have suggested to the government that everything will be fine whatever they do.  SAGE and SPI-M of course don’t tell the government what to do, and models don’t predict the future.  The aim is to ensure that government have the best evidence for their decisions.

“The health burden due to COVID-19 is considerable and should not be underestimated – there is no good news in a pandemic.  However, we could be in a worse situation.  We have now seen the impact of immunity on transmission and disease, and this has greatly reduced the possibility of a very high hospital admission rate.  The biggest change from earlier modelling is that the uncertainty about how well vaccines work has been reduced, although we do now have some uncertainty about waning immunity, the booster programme is already in place.  We still don’t know how the booster programme will actually work out, but if it gets enough vaccines into enough people fast enough then it’s a very strong barrier.

“There is still uncertainty driven by multiple factors, and this is made clear both by presenting multiple models, multiple scenarios and confidence intervals around each one.

“Whether to move to plan B or not is entirely for the government to decide.  Our job is to provide one part of the evidence – the potential pathways that the epidemic can take.  NHS, economists and many others feed into government decisions as well.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-modelling-for-scenarios-for-covid-19-autumn-and-winter-2021-to-2022-13-october-2021

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www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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