April 29, 2020

expert comment about current situation in Germany

Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, UEA, said:

“Despite suggestions that cases of COVID-19 have started to increase again in Germany following relaxation of its lockdown measures, this does not appear to be the case.  Yes Tuesday’s figures (1144) are up on Monday’s (1018).  But this is almost certainly due to the weekend effect.  Monday’s figures reflect results produced on Sunday when there is almost always a dip in numbers across most countries.

“Rather than look at individual days and make inaccurate conclusions it is always better to look at the smoothed data.  I use a rolling seven day average (the average value for the day in question plus the three previous and three days following).  You can see from the attached graphs that the underlying trend is still down in both new cases and deaths.

“Having said that, it is vital that we monitor trends in all countries across Europe to determine how relaxing current social distancing measures affects control of the pandemic.  Only then will we make the best decisions about how to return to some form or normality without causing an unacceptable increase in risk.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.