May 12, 2004

debate heats up on global warming flick

Reaction from the scientific community to 20th Century Fox’s latest blockbuster, the global-warming extravaganza, ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.

Professor Tim D Jickells, Director, Laboratory for Global Marine and Atmospheric Chemistry (LGMAC), University of East Anglia, said:

“While the film may be over the top, rapid climate change is a real issue that we need to take seriously. If it persuades us to do more research and to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases it will have done a great job.”

Professor Mike Hulme, Executive Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, said:

“We need to distinguish between good film-making, good science and good politics. The Day After Tomorrow takes its starting point from science, but ends up telling a dramatic and entertaining science-fiction story. The point is well made, however, that political decisions by governments and personal lifestyle decisions by all of us, can and do alter the sustainability of life on this planet. The climatic extremes portrayed in the film must not be taken literally; but we would be foolish to ignore the key message that the future of the Earth is in our hands.”

Al Gore, former Vice President of the USA, said:

“Millions of people will be coming out of theatres on Memorial Day weekend, asking the question, “Could this really happen?” I think we need to answer that question. Many viewers may be alarmed by what they see on the screen. It will not be as sudden and dramatic as the Hollywood film, but the earth’s environment is currently sustaining severe and potentially irreparable damage from the unprecedented accumulation of pollution in the global atmosphere. This is real and is a threat to our common future.”

Dr David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, said:

“In 1998, the British Antarctic Survey predicted the demise of more ice shelves round the Antarctic Peninsula. Since then warming on the peninsula has continued and we watched as piece-by-piece Larsen B slowly retreated. We knew what was left would collapse eventually, but the speed of it’s final collapse was staggering. Hard to believe that 500 billion tonnes of ice sheet has disintegrated in less than a month.

In line with the rest of the world, Antarctica appears to be warming, but climate on the Antarctic Peninsula is changing much faster. For 50 years it has warmed around five times faster than mean global warming, and faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere. Scientists at BAS are working hard to find out why this warming has occurred and whether we can expect it to continue. Only with that information will we be able to predict the impact on glaciers, plants and animals in the area, and the implications for world sea level.”

Professor Nick Pidgeon, Director of the Centre for Environmental Risk, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, said:

“Public opinion research in both Britain and Europe shows that people already hold quite high levels of concern about the risks posed by climate change. The Day After is likely to reinforce these concerns, while at the same time providing a very real opportunity to stimulate a serious public debate about those risks and what might be done about them.”

Prof Bill Maguire, Director, Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre, said:

“The Day After Tomorrow is great fun and stupendously filmed. Unfortunately, it fails to distinguish between science fact and the wildest science fantasy. Abrupt climate change is a serious business and evidence is already accumulating for global warming triggering huge changes to ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. It is certainly feasible that the UK and North West Europe will cool in coming decades as a consequence, but the total destruction of Los Angeles by tornadoes? I think not!!”

Professor Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, said:

“The film may bring the issue of climate change higher up the public’s attention, but the scenario it portrays is scientifically ludicrous – not only in the speed of response, but also by linking sea level rise to extreme cold.”

Jeff Severinghaus, Scipps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, said:

“There is one scene where Jack Hall explains snow-albedo feedback to the president, and gets the science right. This film performs some valuable public education.”

Dr. Daniel Schrag, Director of the Laboratory for Geochemical Oceanography, Harvard University, said:

“The movie greatly exaggerates how quickly climate change can happen. And higher carbon dioxide will not push us into another ice age – certainly not in a few days. However, it is possible that the ultimate consequences of climate change, occurring over decades rather than days, may be just as severe and disastrous. Most people can distinguish the difference between a Hollywood movie and the real world. Perhaps this film will encourage moviegoers to be more curious about the true science of climate change, and encourage scientists to use more imagination in communicating what the real risks of climate change might be for society.”