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Irish scientists comment on Storm Eowyn.
Dr Barry Hayes, Associate Professor in Electrical Power Systems, University College Cork, said:
“Trees falling can certainly damage the electrical infrastructure, but storms also cause electricity poles to be damaged or toppled. High winds can cause electricity lines to come into contact with each other resulting in electrical faults, and debris from the storm coming into contact with the electrical infrastructure also causes faults.
“This is a particular issue in rural parts of the country (Ireland) where the electrical distribution network is made up almost entirely of overhead lines that are exposed to the weather. In cities, more of the electrical infrastructure is underground, so we don’t have as many outages.
“In an event as extreme as Storm Éowyn, there can be damage to larger electrical infrastructure too, e.g., substations, transmission pylons etc.
“ESB Networks dispatch repair crews to fix damaged overhead lines. This is a record number of outages recorded in the country and ESB crews will work day and night over the next week or so to restore power to everyone. Prioritisation is usually given to restoring parts of the network that serve the largest numbers of customers, so if you are in a very isolated location (e.g., at the end of a long electrical line and far from the nearest substation), this can take longer.
“The best solution to making the grid more resilient to storms is undergrounding the distribution network infrastructure. There are many efforts ongoing internationally to convert overhead lines to underground cables for this reason. However, in Ireland this is very expensive to do since we have a relatively low population density and a geographically scattered population outside our main cities. The costs of undergrounding on a nationwide scale would be enormous. Backup generators, batteries, and other forms of energy storage can help make in making us more resilient, particularly in rural areas.
“Always assume fallen electricity lines are live and stay well away from them. Also be patient and supportive to ESB repair crews even if you are frustrated with being without power for a long time – their job is very difficult and dangerous.”
Dr Paul Cuffe, Assistant Professor, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University College Dublin, said:
“Storms cause localised power outages because of the damage they do to the electricity distribution system. These assets, which in Ireland are owned and operated by ESB Networks, bring electricity from the backbone transmission grid (operated by Eirgrid) out to the homes and businesses that need it. These distribution circuits act like local and regional roads whereas the transmission grid is akin to our national motorway network. Distribution circuits are usually overhead lines, and these are prone to storm damage: trees can be blown into contact with conductors, or poles can collapse, amidst other hazards, and these will cause sudden electrical disturbances. ESB Networks uses sophisticated devices, called protective relays, that can detect if something strange happens to the flow of electricity along a distribution line, which can indicate a dangerous short circuit situation. When this happens the powerline is immediately and automatically de-energised to avoid hazards to life and property. Unfortunately, this response will sever the supply to all the homes that had been relying on that local line to bring them electricity, and they usually won’t get their supply back until a crew has been dispatched in a van to diagnose and remediate whatever mishap befell the powerline.”
Dr Eugene Farrell, Associate Professor, School of Geography, Archaeology and Irish Studies, University of Galway, said:
“Storm Éowyn is another visible piece of evidence that changing ocean climates in the Atlantic have the potential to generate extreme storm and hurricane events. Rising sea levels and intensified storms are already posing significant threat to the livelihoods of coastal communities in Ireland. We have to acknowledge that a sea-level rise of up to 1 metre is now locked-in for Ireland and will take decades, or even centuries, to stop – even if the EU meets its aim to be climate-neutral by 2050. This has very serious implications for our coasts and will increase the rates of irreversible shoreline erosion and lead to more frequent and severe flooding events.
“Part of the research by Geographers in University of Galway and the Ryan Institute is to monitor coastal change from storms and to co-design potential solutions with concerned coastal groups and local authorities. New research shows how restoring our dune fields, tidal wetlands, oyster beds, seagrass beds and kelp beds can build resilience to extreme weather events by providing natural buffers from high-energy storm surges. The good defence against storm surge is to have a healthy dune system or wide tidal wetland in front of coastal infrastructure to dissipate the storm energy. Dune-based restoration is happening all around Ireland and most commonly involve planting marram grasses on degraded sand dunes. This intervention stabilizes exposed bare sand areas which reduces erosion risks and enhances biodiversity. A recent report from the Climate Change Advisory Council shows how volunteer coastal communities are working to protect their coasts but are in urgent need of government support. Scaling up nature-based solutions in our marine waters is particularly important in Ireland and Europe, as the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 mandates that 30% of terrestrial and marine habitats must be protected. For marine habitats (e.g., seagrass beds, kelp forests, shellfish beds) the Nature Restoration Law will require Ireland to have restoration measures in place on at least 30% of the areas not in good condition by 2030.
“Ireland is also required to put in place measures to restore estuarine, coastal, and marine habitats under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). It is an opportune time in coastal and marine management in Ireland. If we restore or coastal and marine habitats, we will concurrently build the resilience of coastal communities to storm impacts and rising sea levels. The question that researchers are asked continually by volunteer coastal groups is when will new support structures be created to help these volunteers ‘on the ground’ (dunes and tidal wetlands) or ‘in the sea’ (oyster, seagrass and kelp beds). What we can predict with certainty is that we urgently need ambitious and brave leadership, so that coastal communities do not end up in the sea.
“A recent report from the European Marine Board illustrates the threats of storms and rising sea levels all around Europe. The report provides policy and scientific recommendations to build coastal resilience. Two the recommendations include supporting nature-based solutions and facilitating government bodies to work closely and continuously with coastal community groups and other stakeholder to find solutions. Geographers in University of Galway are working with the Marine Institute, the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, the OPW as well as multiple local authorities around Ireland on solutions to all these recommendations.”
https://www.marineboard.eu/publications/building-coastal-resilience-europe
Prof Peter Thorne, Professor of Physical Geography, Maynooth University, said:
“The jury is very much out on linking climate change to windstorms. There are vanishingly few studies that have come up with a definitive link on any aspects of windstorms (frequency, intensity) in the midlatitudes. That doesn’t, necessarily, mean that there is no link (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence) but it is important to be honest as to what we don’t know.
The proximal cause of this storm is a record or near record temperature gradient between the SE US and the Atlantic. Many places across a broad swathe of the southern US have broken daily, monthly or even all time cold records. Couple that with a North Atlantic breaking daily records the other way and that temperature gradient supercharges the atmospheric jet. This storm has then coupled with that jet ‘just so’ to enable very explosive cyclogenesis.”
Dr Mary Bourke, Associate Professor, Trinity College Dublin, said:
“TCD Geographers are out in the field right now collecting data to assess the real effect of this storm on the erosion of our coastline in Wexford and Dublin.
While the winds are expected to do significant damage to homes and businesses including tree damage or what we call wind throw, the storm is also generating significantly high waves that will have the potential to change our softer (sandier) coastlines, particularly along the East Coast of Ireland.
Coast erosion is a significant problem that engineering will struggle to address. There are some nature based activities Like planting Marram grass and keeping the public away from walking on sand dunes. These natural landforms (dunes and salt marshes) already protect our coastline and we must do what we can to protect these landforms.”
Via Science Media Centre UK
Prof Liz Bentley, Chief Executive, Royal Meteorological Society, said:
What do we know about this storm and is it expected to be damaging?
“Storm Éowyn is a rapidly deepening low pressure system developing to the west of the UK and will quickly move across the UK during Friday with peak wind gusts of 80-90mph across Northern Ireland, North Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland and some exposed locations could record 100mph gusts. These are damaging strength winds and there is a danger to life from flying debris, large waves near the coast, fallen trees and damage to building and the Met Office has issued rare red warnings.
What does a red warning mean?
“It is rare for the Met Office to issue red warnings. They are the highest level of weather warning and indicate that dangerous weather is expected and there is a danger to life. People living or travelling in the area under the red warnings are encouraged to take action to keep themselves and others safe from the impact of the severe weather, in the case of Storm Éowyn that impact is from strong winds. In addition to the risk to life there is also the likelihood of substantial disruption to travel, energy supplies and damage to building and infrastructure. People there should avoid travelling if at all possible and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities.
What causes storms like these?
“The jetstream, which is a band of strong winds at the top of the atmosphere around 30,000ft above the ground, provides the mechanism for storms, like Storm Éowyn, to develop. The jetstream in winter is often stronger leading to more storms forming, and its position is often closer to the UK so those developing systems are directed towards our shores.
“The current maximum speed in the jetstream is more than 250mph and data from flightradar24 highlighted that a flight BA from Las Vegas to Heathrow hit a speed of 814mph thanks to the strong tailwind in the jetstream. The subsonic speed record currently stands at 835mph, so that record could well be broken in the coming hours.
Is there anything unusual about this one or is it a standard winter storm?
“Storm Éowyn is a particularly potent storm particular because of a very active Jetstream, also the storm will be at its strongest as it crosses the UK and Ireland.”
Dr Jess Neumann, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading, said:
“Storm Éowyn is not one to underestimate – stay safe, stay prepared, and plan ahead. This storm has the potential to bring serious risks, not just to travel and property, but to your safety and wellbeing.
“Storm Éowyn is set to hit the UK hard on Friday, bringing 90mph winds, torrential rain, and potentially leaving heavy snow in its wake.
“Expect widespread travel disruption, power outages and dangerous conditions along coastlines and high wind areas. Severe flooding is likely, with heavy rain and snowmelt combining to create hazardous surface water and flash floods that could strike with little warning. Check your flood risk online at https://www.gov.uk/check-flooding and take action now if you’re in a vulnerable area.
“If you must travel, be prepared for delays. Carry spare warm clothes, blankets, bottled water, a torch, and ensure your vehicle is fuelled and well-maintained. For those at risk of flooding, act quickly. If time permits and it’s safe, turn off your gas and electricity, move valuables to higher ground, and relocate to safety.”
Prof Daniela Schmidt, Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, said:
“Climate changes is too often reduced to warming, and numbers which are small compared to the seasonal changes in temperature, giving a false sense of security.
“Climate change also changes how much vapour is in the atmosphere, how strong our storms become, how frequent they are, and how much flooding this has the potential to cause.
“We need to learn from disaster risk reduction to be better prepared for these events, and early warning is a very important part of this preparedness. We need to look out for those most vulnerable, who might not hear these warnings, do not understand them, or cannot act. And ultimately, we need to adapt and reduce our emissions as these storms, fires, droughts are just the beginning of we do not prioritise action.”
Prof Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor Emeritus, University of Oxford, said:
“It may be tempting to attribute the exceptional Storm Eowyn to climate change. However, in this case, it is not straightforward. The storm has been fuelled by an exceptionally strong jet stream over the North Atlantic. However, the strong jet stream is in turn linked to the circulations over North America which have brought cold temperatures over much of the continent, with a strong gradient of temperature with sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico (!) and elsewhere. Whether the circulations bringing the cold air to North American have a climate change component is currently unknown. Some speculate it does, but the evidence is not clear.
“Whilst climate change is relatively simple and straightforward at the global scale, it gets complicated at the regional scale where the effects of CO2 interact with the naturally occurring dynamical patterns of climate variability. Although we have a good understanding of the basic thermodynamics of climate change – how it warms and moistens the atmosphere – our understanding of these dynamical impacts of climate change is much less good.
“It is likely that the thermodynamical effects of climate change have intensified Storm Eowyn somewhat. However, we do not know whether the potentially more important dynamical effects of climate change have exacerbated the storm or not. This is an area of ongoing research where the development of high-resolution climate models is proving vital.”
Declared interests
Prof Daniela Schmidt: “No competing interests.”
Prof Tim Palmer: “No interests to declare.”
For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.