October 14, 2024

expert reaction to study on the rate of increase of global warming

A study published in Nature Communications and Earth & Environment looks at the recent increase of global warming. 

Dr Kevin Collins, Senior Lecturer Environment and Systems, Open University, said:

“With many people and places experiencing year on year record temperatures around the globe in the last decade, it is very human to assume global warming is accelerating or ‘surging’.  However, through an authoritative statistical analysis of temperature increases since 1970, this research concludes that there is no detectable surge. Yet.

“Instead, the results suggest global warming is occurring at a steady state. However, as the authors acknowledge, this may be because the size of any acceleration is either statistically too small, or there is simply not enough data to detect a surge in the last decade.  In other words, it is still too early to tell if the last decade (the warmest on record) represents a ‘leap’ in the warming trend.  By 2035 or 2040 we may look back and be able to see from 2015 onwards there has been a fundamental shift in the warming trend.

“There is a very real danger that the new research is misinterpreted to show that there is no global warming or that a steady state increase in temperature means we have lots of time to act.

“The bald statistics of a global warming world are already being lived by many populations and communities whose livelihoods are being severely impacted by heatwaves, droughts, floods, sea-level rise and other environmental changes.”

Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading and National Centre for Earth Observations, said:

“The new research highlights the difficulty in detecting an increase in the rate of surface warming, which is influenced by natural variations such as swings between warm El Niño and cool La Niña events. However, satellite observations and ocean measurements already detect a steady increase in Earth’s heating rate that is less susceptible to year to year fluctuations at the sea surface.

“In fact, when all lines of evidence are scrutinized it is apparent that climate change is accelerating rather continuing steadily. Halting global warming by stabilizing Earth’s climate and limiting further damage from worsening extreme weather and rising sea levels is only possible through rapid and massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.”

‘Is the Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?’ by Claudie Beaulieu et al. was published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment at 22:00 UK time on Monday 14th October.

Declared interests:

Dr Kevin Collins: No conflicts to declare.

Prof Richard Allan: No conflicts to declare.