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The Office for National Statistics (ONS), have released the latest data from their COVID-19 Infection Survey.
Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and Professor of Structural Biology, University of Oxford, said:
“Omicron continues to grow in England according the latest ONS survey for week ending 6th July (Scotland is 7th July).
“Scotland has most likely reached a peak in prevalence at around 1 in 16 people infected. England is on its on way to this with 1 in 19 currently and rising.
“Prevalence is increasing in all age groups. This will keep the NHS under pressure, especially as it reaches the elderly.
“Data released early in the week shows that around 98 % of the population have antibodies at a high level (179 ng ml). The antibodies result from vaccination and / or infection.
“The current stain of Omicron has evolved to evade this immune response to cause infection. It’s very good at it, the prevalence is high for summer. It would have been higher in winter.
“Neither vaccination nor previous infection (with a non-Omicron strain) give strong protection against Omicron infection; this is why infection numbers are high despite us all having antibodies.
“The high level of antibodies in the population is why current levels of infection are not killing many more people; our antibodies protect against serious illness.
“Vaccination is a much safer way to get this protection than infection.
“For most of us, infection with covid19 is now a mild illness.
“However, the risks are:
(a) Each infection brings with it the chance of long covid. The chance of this is reduced with Omicron and further reduced by vaccination; but not to zero. Only reducing the number of infections will help this.
(b) More elderly and vulnerable population will get more seriously ill as the virus spreads in them, hospitals are seeing an increase in patients and around 100 people a die with covid19 every day, some of these directly as a result of the virus. The numbers are a long long way down (due to vaccines) but each death will have broken someone’s heart. We should remember the pain and grief of families.
“We can reduce deaths by lowering infections and / or improving treatments.
“The following measures have been shown to reduce infections:
(1) Improved ventilation.
(2) Universal masking, this reduces the ability of an infected person to spread the disease. Such masking is not currently likely in the UK. The vulnerable and elderly should consider wearing N95 masks, these do provide protect against infection.
(3) Social restrictions. These have very serious consequences and quite rightly are a matter for elected representatives. Current UK policy is for no such restrictions.
(4) vaccines directed against the current circulating strain.
(5) Isolation of infected people.
“Option 1 is a no brainer.
“Option 5 is hard for those who do not get sick pay or have complex responsibilities, still for those who can staying at home if you feel sick or test positive will help.
“Options 2 and 3, half hearted or incomplete measures are largely symbolic. The virus spreads too readily.
“Option 4 is a question for health economists, swapping vaccines is not a switch to press. There are costs and delays whilst such new vaccines come forward. Existing vaccines continue to greatly reduce serious illness. The gain against an evolving virus may be limited.
“The following measures reduce deaths (in addition to reducing infections of course):
(1) vaccination; as before switching strains of the vaccine may help a little. The emergence of a more lethal (to vaccinated people) strain would require a new vaccine.
(2) Improved care; the drop in the death rate does also reflect better protocols and treatments. We need more investment not less.
“I have had four vaccinations and Omicron infection. I test regularly and will isolate if and when I become infected. I do not mask unless with others who are masked in crowded indoor spaces; I happily do so wherever I can. I go to crowded spaces and live as close to possible to the life I had pre-Covid19. I am immensely lucky. We should all remember that many of fellow citizens do not have this luck; kindness and empathy go a long way.”
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