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The Office for National Statistics (ONS), have released the latest data from their COVID-19 Infection Survey.
Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:
“The evidence of the decline in Scotland, relative stability in England and increases in infection levels in Wales, will reflect a number of factors including levels of existing immunity due to past infections and vaccinations, and differences in adoption of remaining NPI’s. A critical consideration is that comparison of the number of people reporting COVID with the estimates of prevalence from the ONS survey, suggest that the reporting rate may be highest in Scotland, lowest in Wales and with regions of England somewhere in between. If we assume that higher reporting also means higher levels of awareness, this suggests then, that individuals in Scotland are more likely to be aware of having COVID if infected, and therefore more likely to isolate and inform others – thereby reducing rates of transmission. It may therefore take longer for any trends of a decline in Scotland to be followed by declines in COVID-19 infections in England and then later than that, in Wales.”
Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:
“Possibly the best that I can say about today’s ONS release on their Coronavirus Infection Survey (CIS) is that it’s not as depressing as last week’s. The latest estimates on positivity, the numbers of people in the UK community population who would test positive for Covid-19, cover the week ending 3 April (last Saturday). The total estimated number who would test positive for the UK is almost the same as the week before, at a little over 4.8 million. Though it’s fallen slightly compared to the week before, by about 1%, that can’t be taken as a clear downward trend, since the fall is within the statistical margin of error. At least it didn’t increase, as it did for many weeks before.
“However, there’s a mixed picture across the four UK countries. In England, the estimate has barely changed, so it’s still the highest it has ever been. In Wales, ONS definitely estimate that there’s been an increase in the latest week, so again the estimated number testing positive is the highest there since the CIS began. In Scotland, the trend is downwards, but the latest estimate is still the third highest ever, lower only than the figures for the previous two weeks. For all three of those countries, ONS estimate that about 1 in 13 of the community population (aged 2 and over) would have tested positive in the week to 3 April. That’s a lot of people. In Northern Ireland, ONS say the trend is uncertain, but at least it’s not increasing. The estimated proportion testing positive there is a bit lower than the other three countries, at 1 in 16, but that’s still a very high rate.
“Some of the people who would test positive for Covid-19 will get seriously ill, and sadly some will die. Not in the horrendous numbers we saw earlier in the pandemic, but the seven-day trends in hospital admissions and in deaths on the Government dashboard are upward. Numbers of people reporting long Covid were up too, according to an ONS release earlier this week. But, apart from those serious consequences, there are many reports of disruptions simply because many people are away from work due to illness. Most of them will recover before too long, and, I hope, won’t have long-term consequences. But all this sickness can’t be good for the economy. Learning to live with Covid doesn’t mean paying no attention to it.
“There are some other hopeful signs in today’s figures, in that ONS say that the numbers testing positive went up in only four of the English regions, and that they actually fell in one region (the South East). Trends are regarded as uncertain in the other four English regions. Last week’s release estimated that infections were increasing in all nine regions.
“Also, there’s some indication, in the ONS modelled data for age groups in England, that the recent increases in infection in older age groups may be beginning to level off. ONS do still report a week-on-week increase for those aged 70 and over, and in younger people from school year 12 to age 24. But ONS report decreases in the youngest age group (age 2 to school year 6) and in ages 35-49. Trends in other age groups are reported as ‘uncertain’. All this indicates that infections may well be plateauing in England, but there’s a long way to go before I’ll be comfortable with the situation.
“As in recent weeks, there are indications in this week’s CIS data that the trends in new confirmed cases on the Government dashboard aren’t particularly reliable. The dashboard figures are based on routine testing for the virus, and, hardly surprisingly, the numbers being tested have fallen in England as policy on availability of tests has changed. Though the CIS estimates of numbers testing positive barely changed in the week ending 3 April compared to the week before, the dashboard confirmed cases figures showed a clear fall over that period. If you test less, you miss cases.
“The ONS survey estimates on new infections (the ‘incidence’ estimates) relate to a period two weeks earlier than the positivity estimates, so aren’t so relevant to the very latest trends, but they also have for some time been showing that the dashboard confirmed case figures are missing an increasing proportion of new infections.
“This is why we need the ONS survey results to be able to track what’s going on. And it’s why I regret that the other major survey for Covid-19 infection in England, the REACT-1 survey, published its last results earlier this week, after its Government funding was removed.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Kevin McConway: “I am a Trustee of the SMC and a member of its Advisory Committee. I am also a member of the Public Data Advisory Group, which provides expert advice to the Cabinet Office on aspects of public understanding of data during the pandemic. My quote above is in my capacity as an independent professional statistician.”
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