March 10, 2022

expert reaction to latest results from the REACT-1 survey on COVID-19 prevalence in England (Round 18)

The latest results from the REACT-1 study have been released looking at COVID-19 prevalence in England.

This Roundup accompanied an SMC Briefing.  

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:

“There’s something of an inevitability to increasing infection numbers.  Control measures were put in place to reduce transmission of the coronavirus, so removing them, by definition, creates an environment where transmission can occur more easily.  If you create or allow conditions for the virus to spread, that is what it will do.  It cannot simply be wished away.

“Whether the UK sees the number of hospitalisations like we have seen previously and whether admissions result in a higher proportion of patients going to ICU remains to be seen, and it’s the latter that will be important as it’s something of a bottleneck for the NHS.  It shouldn’t be forgotten that our ability to treat serious infections is now much better than at any time and will continue to improve, but none of these are 100% successful.

“This latest increase in infections could be because people are mixing more or because of a drop in population-wide immunity. Most likely, it’s a of bit of both, but at the moment nobody can say for sure. The ONS data will reveal this in time.”

Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist, Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, said:

“The latest REACT-1 study shows something of what we might expect to see over time as we start to live with the virus:

• a lower uptake – increased with a monetary incentive – but still only 15% overall – which may bias the sample slightly
• but a high prevalence of the virus (2.88%, 8 Feb – 4 Mar 2022) overall – second only to the early REACT 17 study (4.41%, 5-20 Jan 2022) 
• an increasing incidence in the older (over 55 y) population – in whom prior vaccine protection is likely waning with time – that may feed into high hospitalisation rates
• higher viral loads (lower Ct values) in PCR swabs from BA.1.1 and BA.2 Omicron variants – which may feed into higher transmissibility

“The prevalence is likely an underestimate as fewer and fewer people are getting tested in the community (as well as in this study).

“Again, as the Omicron variant adapts further to this well-vaccinated human population, we may see more vaccine-escape capable variants arising, with higher viral loads and increased transmissibility, leading to more infections/reinfections as vaccine immunity wanes over time – in a more well-mixed population.

“Note that the current vaccines are still designed for the original Wuhan virus strain – so they are relying on a degree of cross-reactive immunity to confer protection against more severe disease and death – but as antibody levels drop, this cross-protection will wane more quickly – especially in those whose booster doses were given quite a while ago.

“Living with COVID-19, as with seasonal flu, will be in the context of the emergence of new variants with different properties – not all of which will be well-controlled by vaccines – leading to fluctuating levels of infections/reinfections – and inevitably a varying number of hospitalisations and deaths.”

‘The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022’ is a preprint by Marc Chadeau-Hyam et al. and the embargo lifts at 00:01 UK time Thursday 10 March 2022.

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.