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The Office for National Statistics (ONS), have released the latest data for deaths in England and Wales.
Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
Excess deaths by date of registration: England & Wales:
“Today, ONS reports: “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 25 February 2022 (Week 8) was 12,648, which was 5.5% below the five-year average (736 fewer deaths); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 8, 878 involved COVID-19 . . .”
“However, Notes to Editor acknowledge that the above 5-year average [using 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 plus 2021] includes the pandemic-year of 2021. When, more sensibly in pandemic terms, ONS reverts to using the same 5-year average as during 2020 and 2021 [based on 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019], then ONS confirms: “Compared with the 2015 to 2019 five-year average (as opposed to the new five-year average used in the previous main points), deaths in England and Wales were 3.4% below average (398 fewer deaths) in Week 8”.
“Compared with the 2015 to 2019 five-year average, registered deaths in England and Wales in week 8 of 2020 were 10840 versus 11549 expected, 6.1% lower than the 5-year average, see Table 2a in https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/excessmortalityandmortalitydisplacementinenglandandwales2020tomid2021.
COVID-mention deaths by date of occurrence: England & Wales:
“In England & Wales, Wave 1 of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic accounted for 52,000 COVID-mention deaths (to nearest 1000), the peak weekly toll having been 8,350 deaths (nearest 10).
“Wave 2 in England & Wales accounted for 69% more COVID-mention deaths (88,000 to nearest 1000) with a weekly peak of 9,060 deaths (nearest 10).
“Waves 3+4 combined for England & Wales, dating from week ending 11 June to week ending 10 September 2021 accounted for 6,035 COVID-mention deaths with an estimated further 22,250 (nearest 50) to week ending 25 February 2022. Hence, sadly, it is likely that in excess of 30,000 COVID-mention deaths will have occurred in England & Wales in Waves 3+4 by the end of March 2022.
“Due to therapeutics, immunization and social distancing by the public, the toll of COVID-mention deaths in Waves 3+4 has been substantially less than in Wave 1 – despite greater disease-severity with Delta and hugely greater transmissibility of Omicron.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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