February 16, 2022

expert reaction to the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, as published by the U.S. National Ocean Service

The National Ocean Service, an office within the U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has published their technical report on 2022 sea level rise.

Dr Mike Walkden, Associate Director, Water Risk Management & Engineering, WSP, said:

“This report is a vital reminder of the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit the growth of coastal erosion and flooding as much as we possibly can.”

“The UK will experience similar changes but because England and south Wales have been gradually sinking for many thousands of years due to the loss of ice sheets over Scotland and northern Ireland, sea level rise will be greater in the south of the UK than in the north.”

“Like any object, our oceans expand as they warm and they are also being filled by increasing meltwaters from icesheets and glaciers. Although these are global processes, there are large differences in the sea level rise experienced from place to place, due to other processes such as the rising or falling of land, and even changes in the gravitational field of the earth. Most of England and south Wales have, for example, been sinking for many thousands of years, exacerbating the problem in these areas.”

Dr Vikki Thompson, Senior Research Associate at the School of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, said:

“As the report from USA finds, in the UK we are likely to experience as much sea level rise as occurred in the last century in the next 30 years, and this will lead to an increase in coastal flooding. 

“Over the past century sea level around the UK has risen, and this trend will continue over future centuries. Around the UK by 2100 the average sea level rise is projected to be about half a metre. Although all regions will experience sea level rise some regions show a slower change than others. In areas of central Scotland which were covered by glaciers in the last ice age, the land is rebounding now the ice is no longer pressing down – causing less sea level rise. The future is not set – reducing emissions will reduce sea level rise.”

Dr Ella Gilbert, Post-doctoral research assistant in the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, said:

“Globally, sea level rise has picked up the pace in recent years, rising 25 cm since 1900 – with 10 cm of that since 1993. This report shows that US sea level rise is expected to accelerate further as the climate warms due to the effects of glacier melt, the expansion of the ocean as it warms, and – in some places – the sinking of land.

“Just like in the US examples given in this report, sea level rise will affect different parts of UK coastlines differently, with seas rising more in the Southeast of England than in Scotland. Higher water levels mean greater risks of flooding, coastal erosion and storm damage, with attendant consequences for property, infrastructure, and lives.

“Urgent action is required to avoid worsening the future risks and to adapt to the changes that are already baked in.”

Dr Natasha Barlow, Associate Professor, University of Leeds, said:

“The new US projections provide an insight into future sea-level rise, which will affect much of the world due to an increase in the rate of melting of the ice sheets and warming of the oceans.  However, the speed and amount of future sea-level rise will vary around the world and along the UK coastline.

“The rate and amount of future sea-level rise will vary along both the USA and UK coasts as the increase in the elevation of the sea surface, due to the melt of the ice sheets, is not the same everywhere because of gravitational processes.  Variable land-level change also alters the amount of sea-level rise that any location experiences.  Regional and local projections of sea-level rise, as undertaken in the NOAA report, are therefore really important.  The Met Office conducted a similar analysis for the UK in 2018.”

Prof Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health at University College London, said:

“This new report is so important in telling us what we must do to be ready as sea-level rise becomes more evident. The changes are slow and incremental, but after decades would become devastating without proper action. We must start now, immediately acting and planning for the next century to ensure that we can experience these changes without catastrophe.”

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

Declared interests

Prof Ilan Kelman: “No interests to declare.”

None others received.