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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released the latest data from their COVID-19 Infection Survey.
Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and Professor of Structural Biology, University of Oxford, said:
“Today’s survey covers up to 1st December.
“This is too early to learn about much about the Omicron variant, although it was spotted in the samples.
“In England between 15 and 17 people in 1000 had Covid19 in that week, almost all of them the Delta variant. In Scotland, this was between 10 and 15 people. In Northern Ireland, between 17 and 22 people in every 1000 and in Wales between 17 and 20.
“This is a high prevalence of the disease in all four nations, this has been true since late August.
“Without vaccination, we would have filled our hospitals. They are under strain with around 800 people a day being admitted.
“Every week around 900 much loved family members are lost to covid19, we should never forget the pain felt by so many.
“It is welcome that Scotland is showing a fall in prevalence and the disease prevalence is now lower in Scotland than other nations. The slightly lower prevalence in Scotland has been sustained throughout November. Its a small effect but worth noting.
“Encouragingly the virus has low and decreasing prevalence in the most vulnerable age group (> 70). It is to be hoped this is the booster campaign at work.
“Two dose vaccination coverage has largely stalled, as a result prevalence in children is very high. Addressing this will lower the burden in the UK.
“In my view the most important observation is that at best the measures in all four nations are holding Delta roughly static at a high level. No UK nation has driven down prevalence.
“The virus spreads by contact with infected breath (or cough or sneeze) droplets. Ventilation, masking and distance all reduce the ability of droplets from one person to reach another, there are called NPIs (non pharmaceutical interventions).
“Masking in one well ventilated place where distancing is observed does not confer any immunity from entering a crowded unmasked poorly ventilated space.
“Omicron prevalence will be measured in the coming weeks.
“Whether Omicron will wreak havoc depends on two things:
“(1) How serious a disease does it cause?
Data from South Africa are too early to conclude the disease is itself “mild”, the mildness may be explained by existing immunity and the age profile of infections. However, we can be reasonably confident that it is not significantly worse. As we have seen with Delta, vaccination does protect extremely well against serious illness. I would therefore expect and hope the same is true for Omicron, perhaps even more so as more of the vulnerable are boosted.
“It should not be forgotten that Covid19 has always been for the majority a mild disease, especially the young. However, it has two features that make it such a serious a problem. It infects a large proportion of the population very quickly thus the minority of serious illnesses that result is a big number that overwhelms the healthcare system and a minority of a very big number results in a large number of deaths. Secondly long covid, a poorly understood complication is a life changing event in a proportion of all age groups.
“(2) How fast does infection spread?
Early estimates of Rt in South Africa give cause for concern, more recent data from South Africa appear less awful. The different rate of vaccination in the UK and the control measures in place, mean there should be some caution about definitive statements. There will be a lively cottage industry in both worst and best case scenarios. Compelling cases can be made for both because we know rather little. If Omicron spread spreads very quickly this will show up in the ONS survey over the next two weeks. Even though vaccination lowers the risk of serious illness, a very quick and large rise in infections will lead to higher numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. The argument will settled by early January.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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