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The Scottish government have announced new COVID-19 restrictions and published an evidence paper providing information about the Omicron variant in Scotland.
Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:
“The case numbers are rising rapidly in a situation where, in Scotland, cases were previously declining under delta. This difference alone between omicron and a variant which had previously very rapidly itself become the dominant variant in the UK shows how serious the new waves of transmission are. At the moment, there is considerable uncertainty in almost everything else – while there is some evidence that 2x vaccination plus boosters retain higher levels of immunity, we don’t know by how much. Also, while 2x vaccinations plus previous infection also appears to offer some protection, current estimates are that it wouldn’t be enough. Evidence for severe illness reductions is also based on limited evidence, so while hopeful, we are not certain any reduction would be enough to keep the total number of hospitalisations from going up substantially – beyond our capacity to absorb them. What we do know is that omicron is spreading in Scotland so rapidly that it will be too late to act, if we wait for those uncertainties to be reduced enough to inform decisions. Thus, while there remains the possibility that omicron will not be worse than delta, it is sensible, epidemiologically, to introduce these restrictions now.”
Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Well done, Scotland’s First Minister, especially in respect of household contacts of index case being required to self-isolate for 10 days irrespective of PCR-result – because such persons remain in the household of the index case and thereby risk post-PCR infection by index case.”
https://www.gov.scot/publications/omicron-scotland-evidence-paper/
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Rowland Kao: “I am a member of SPI-M but acting in a personal capacity.”
Prof Sheila Bird: “SMB is a Scot but my remark in epidemiologically grounded as high-transmission-risk to members of household of index case has been well-known over the past 18 months.”