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SPI-M-O have published their latest consensus statement on COVID-19.
Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:
“The consensus statement from SPI-M is based on as much of the current evidence as is available including the most recent data from South Africa, relevant lab based studies, and our observations about the situation in GB. There is considerable uncertainty across many factors, but it is clear across the four major analyses conducted by groups working independently that, in the absence of rapid action, there are many plausible scenarios that would lead to unacceptably high levels of severe infection. As evidence is updated, the situation may of course change, however evidence of more optimistic outcomes would most likely arrive too late – the opportunity to have a sufficient impact should the currently most plausible outcomes play out, would likely have passed. Thus while the severe negative impacts of further restrictions are acknowledged, the risk of overwhelming our health services make greater restrictions the epidemiologically sensible choice.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Rowland Kao: “Note that while a member of SPI-M my comments are made in a personal capacity.”