March 3, 2021

expert reaction to study on fossil CO2 emissions

A study published in Nature Climate Change looks at Fossil CO2 emissions in the post COVID-19 era.

This Roundup accompanied an SMC Briefing.

Prof Richard Pancost, Professor of Biogeochemistry at the University of Bristol, said:

“This is a powerful and timely analysis that confirms that the disruption caused by Covid had an impact on emissions – but not much of one.  In doing so, this work highlights the scale of the decarbonisation challenge we face and the need for utmost urgency.  Covid did not shut down our global economy but its impact was undeniably huge: we flew less and travelled less; we ate out less often, worked from home, socialised less; manufacturing continued, and labs remained open but only after shutdowns and disruption.  And still, the decrease in CO2 emissions was only about 7%, a strikingly small shift given the disruption to society…and when compared to the need to eventually achieve a near 100% reduction in CO2 emissions.  This should not surprise us; for over a century, we embedded fossil fuel emissions into every aspect of our society.  We burn fossil fuels to fly or drive but also to manufacture bicycles or deliver the food that fuels us when we walk.  This should not cause us to despair, because if we have been able to build a fossil-fuel based society over a century, it is not too much of a challenge to replace it in a few decades. Crucially, however, this work shows that it will involve more than just changes to our behaviour, although those are important.  We will have to invest in infrastructure, transform our economy and support the many who will be impacted by those changes.”

Prof Dave Reay, Chair in Carbon Management & Education, Director of Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, University of Edinburgh, said:

“This is an excellent, and super-timely, study. It gives the best estimate to date on how Covid-19 restrictions supressed global emissions last year, and how this all played out over time and space. The reported global decline in emissions in 2020 hides some big disparities between nations; not just in how much they emitted, but where those emissions are now headed as we emerge from Covid restrictions. Already there are signs that instead of ‘build back better’ it is often more a case of ‘build back, whatever’.  If we are to have any chance of getting on track to meet the Paris Climate Goals the route out of the pandemic must be both global AND green.”

Prof Richard Pancost, Professor of Biogeochemistry at the University of Bristol, said:

“These results highlight the scale of the decarbonisation challenge we face and the need for utmost urgency.  Covid did not shut down our global economy but its impact was undeniably huge: we flew less and travelled less; we ate out less often, worked from home, socialised less; manufacturing continued, and labs remained open but only after shutdowns and disruption.  And still, the decrease in CO2 emissions was less than 10%, a strikingly small shift given the disruption to society…and when compared to the need to eventually achieve a near 100% reduction in CO2 emissions.  This should not surprise us; for over a century, we embedded fossil fuel emissions into every aspect of our society.  We burn fossil fuels to fly or drive but also to manufacture bicycles or deliver the food that fuels us when we walk.  This should not cause us to despair, because if we have been able to build a fossil-fuel based society over a century, it is not too much of a challenge to replace it in a few decades. Crucially, however, it will involve more than just changes to our behaviour, although those are important.  We will have to invest in infrastructure and transform our economy and support the many who will be impacted by those changes.”

Dr Joeri Rogelj, Lecturer in Climate Change and the Environment, Grantham Institute – Climate Change & the Environment, Imperial College London, said:

“This study confirms that last year’s CO2 emissions were about 7% lower than 2019 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also reiterates a couple of findings of previous studies that remain important today. The challenge to recover from the COVID-19 crisis offers an important opportunity to engender structural change towards a low-carbon future. For this to happen, governments need to use their recovery stimulus in smart, future-proof ways. Other analysis has shown very few governments are taking this opportunity at the moment. Putting this in context: by the end of this year, governments should present new and updated emission reduction pledges at the climate summit COP26 in Glasgow. Currently, the actions and investments of many governments in response to COVID-19 are driving emissions in the opposite direction.”

Dr Robin Lamboll, Research Associate in Climate Science and Policy, Grantham Institute – Climate Change & the Environment, Imperial College London, said:

“The press release accurately represents the paper.

“It’s really hard to get timely, accurate data from around the world at a time when official statistics are often both scarce and late. The paper isn’t breaking new ground here but requires an impressive degree of data coordination nonetheless. This work is very consistent with pre-existing evidence.

“The paper is good for making assessments of the emissions change from power use. It’s exceedingly hard to track many types of emissions, such as emissions from deforestation, where it’s not clear even whether we expect to see an increase or a decrease in emissions due to lockdown. The paper doesn’t resolve this problem, and more work, including more country-specific information, will be needed to get the details of the impact of lockdown on the natural world more generally.

“A drop in emissions for one or two years doesn’t really have a long-term effect on climate change. The question for the future is to what extent the emissions reduction indicates a change of culture, and to what extent government assistance is going towards growing a greener economy rather than rebooting fossil fuels.”

‘Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era’ by Le Quéré et al. was published in Nature Climate Change at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 3^rd March.

doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01001-0

Declared interests

Prof Dave Reay: “No interests declared.”

None others received.