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In his address to the nation this evening, the Prime Minister announced a national lockdown to begin from midnight tonight.
Dr Julian W Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist at the University of Leicester, said:
“We sort of predicted the likely need for this post-Xmas/New Year lockdown because we knew that many people would still try to meet up over the festive season – and we cannot really blame the new variant virus for all of this.
“Yet this brief freedom will have long-term costs for business and education – and people’s health, both COVID19 and non-COVID19-related.
“Just looking at the Worldometer, the UK has been having more daily new COVID-19 cases than all of France, Spain, Italy and Germany combined.
“It’s amazing that we seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again – with increasing loss of life. The vaccine is probably the only way out of this for the UK, as the various Tiered social distancing measures are clearly not working well enough here.”
Dr Jeremy Farrar, Director of Wellcome, said:
“We have reached the point where national lockdown restrictions are needed immediately. New strains of Covid-19 are a serious threat, and we are seeing how these can quickly outpace existing restrictions. In the UK and in many other countries, hospitals and health care workers are now at or beyond the brink, struggling to cope with Covid and non-Covid care demands. Health care workers are working with unselfish and inspiring dedication, but the demand is overwhelming the capacity of what can be delivered by these amazing professionals. They must have all our support, meaning we all respect the restrictions, helping to reduce transmission of this awful virus, ultimately reducing hospitalisations and preventable deaths.
“Vaccine rollout, even with the two vaccines now available in the UK, will take time to reach initial priority groups. We will speed up the process and reach more people in these groups by extending the gap between first and second doses. To maximise the impact of this, and to ensure we can develop a programme which is already thinking ahead to next winter, large-scale trials of timings of the second vaccine dose should begin when this initial roll out to all vulnerable people is completed. At present we do not have the evidence we need for how long the immunity provided by the vaccines will last.
“At the same time, the UK and other international leaders must deliver on ensuring global access and supply of these first vaccines. It is in no country’s interest to focus only on national populations. A new strain identified in South Africa is already a major concern, and we should expect further strains to emerge globally. Redoubling efforts to contain this virus through public health measures is essential while vaccines and treatment efforts continue to progress. This is a global, endemic infection, which will require ongoing global surveillance and response for years to come. Leave one country behind and we are all exposed to risk, and to life taking longer and longer to returning to anything like normal.”
Dr Flavio Toxvaerd, University Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, who specialises in the economics of infectious diseases and economic epidemiology, said:
“A rational policy is one that controls the spread of the disease while doing minimal harm to economic and social activity. But over time, additional policies must be put in place to mitigate the economic and social impact of further restrictions, should the need arise. This involves ensuring that institutions are resilient to disruptions such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, made inevitable by the surge in infections.
“Businesses rely on such resilience for their survival and have learned the lessons of previous lockdowns. Inventories have been built up and having employees work from home is now widespread. But this will be a real stress test for the public sector, especially for education. Time will tell how well government has prepared for this lockdown and learned the lessons from past mistakes.”
Prof Neil Greenberg, Professor of Defence Mental Health at King’s College London, said:
“Back in March 2020 our King’s College London Health Protection Research Unit team published a paper in the Lancet which examined the psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it. Whilst we have learned a lot since that time, the findings of that paper remain extant.
“We know that done badly, requiring people to quarantine and isolate, and by extension, remain in lockdown for extended periods can have a detrimental impact on mental health. Our review found that in some cases the negative impact on mental health was evident years later. So, what is a good, or indeed, bad period of quarantine or isolation and how does that apply to the Prime Minister’s announcement of another lockdown.
“First, the rationale for it has to be both understandable and believable. I think the numbers of infections, admissions and deaths has been high for some time now so it seems likely that many people will, sadly, understand the rationale for the lockdown decision that has been made.
“Second, there has to be good access to basic needs, foods, medicine, healthcare etc. and it seems likely that these will be available in the weeks and months ahead given the country’s previous response to lockdowns.
“Third, there needs to be some ability to communicate with people we care for and in this respect most of us have, albeit reluctantly at times, got quite good at using video conferencing, telephone and other means of staying in touch. Fourth, people need things to do which prevent them becoming fed up; once again most of us have become used to finding things to do when previously we might have been at bored out of our minds.
“Last, the period of being cut off from others needs to be as short as it can and should not be extended once an end date has been given. As yet, whilst the Prime Minister has not yet given a firm end date, as no one can provide firm reassurances of that, there does appear to be some realistic hope for a better future with the roll out of the vaccine programme now underway.
“So, what does this all mean? Well, in my view it seems likely that there will be a lot of short-term distress but until we know more about the ‘end’ of lockdown it is hard to predict what the longer-term impact on mental health of this lockdown will be.”
Dr Catherine Carroll-Meehan, Head of School of Education and Sociology, University of Portsmouth, said:
“Closing schools is the right decision. What families, children and schools need is some certainty. It is a shame that the Government do not take decisions in a more certain and timely manner. Taking the decision to close schools on Sunday when the PM was on the Andrew Marr show (or last week when more areas were put into tier 4) would have allowed schools to have inset days today to plan for the rest of the week at least. Notifying teachers at 8 pm, 12 hours before they would be expected to go to work, is unacceptable.
“Children learn at home and school and lockdown 3 should encourage informal learning especially in the early years and lower primary. In times of change, children need consistency, clarity and care. Schools, teachers and teaching assistants provide that for children. We need to see this in the round too, children during the Blitz were displaced with homes bombed and moved away from family and their education disrupted, we need to learn lessons about the impact of this type of trauma on children and build in time to consider mental health impact rather than focussing solely on targets and outcomes. Mental wellbeing should be prioritised once schools reopen.
“I am very concerned about children living in cold homes and parents having to make a choice between heating and food. There are opportunities for the government to extend funding to families on free school meals to heat their homes. (~See my earlier comments.)
“This is a very troubling time with the uncertainty that has been part of our lives for 12 months. For some children, they will struggle to remember life how it was and the panic and state of flux is unsettling for all.
“My daughter is a Teach First trainee at a Primary school in Peterborough. Yesterday she drove back ready for work today. This evening she is driving back home. For us this is inconvenient, she was prepared with things she brought home in December to teach online and the inability of the government to make decisions impacts on the physical and mental health of everyone. She will have to teach her year 2s online. These children had made a lot of progress last term after missing 6 months of school. Sadly, this progress is likely to stall because teaching year 2s online is not simple, it is hard enough in a classroom with 26 individuals all with different learning needs and abilities.”
Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said:
“As the UK’s number of coronavirus infection climbs ever higher after the festive period, due in part to a more transmissible strain, England has been placed under a full lockdown again. The last time the country saw such restrictions imposed, during the spring 2020 lockdown, the R number was lowered to somewhere in the 0.5-0.9 range. The new variant raises the R number by 0.4-0.7, so it’s possible that even with schools closed and people ordered to stay at home, this new lockdown may struggle to achieve an R of less than 1 as quickly as in previous outbreaks. Reducing the R rate to 1 is crucial to stop the virus from growing exponentially, and we must push it below 1 before we start to see numbers of new cases start to decrease.
“We do not know how long this new set of restrictions will be in place for. In his address, Boris Johnson said that at the very best, the most vulnerable in our society could receive their first vaccination by mid-February, but that would not alleviate the immediate pressures on the NHS. It seems likely that the British people are due for a long haul before the restrictions on their lifestyles can be lifted.
“Getting the millions of the most vulnerable people their first dose of vaccine is a good start, but this group will need their second jab before they have the kind of protection that trials have shown is possible. Even then, a small proportion of vaccinated people could still catch the virus if it is still circulating widely in the rest of the population, and crucially, elsewhere in the world.
“This coronavirus has shown its ability to mutate quickly and become more troublesome. Until it is properly eradicated, it is possible it will continue to come back and cause problems.”
Dr Shaun Fitzgerald FREng, University of Cambridge, said:
“The Hands, Face, Space and Ventilate message is all about enabling people to share a space whilst reducing the risk of transmission. The current situation is such that our application of these mitigation measures does not seem to be sufficient to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed shortly, and so the ultimate transmission break option is needed – lockdown. Stopping all physical interactions between people wherever possible is a last resort and is absolutely not something anyone wants to see. But it seems there is little choice and we all have to do our bit by complying with the rules, so that we can actually reap the benefits of lockdown and knock out the transmission.”
Prof Sir Gordon Duff, University of Oxford and Past Co-Chair of SAGE, said:
“This is a national emergency. The measures announced, although hard to endure, are justified. It was good to see the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition putting aside political differences in the best interests of all. There is no doubt that we face tough times, but vaccines will give us eventual victory”.
Dr David Strain, Clinical senior lecturer and honorary consultant, Co-Chair BMA Medical Academic Staff Committee, University of Exeter Medical School, said:
“We welcome the PM’s definitive actions to halt the rise in coronavirus and the hospitalisations that accompany it, albeit a little later than we would have liked and the science would have dictated.
“I have some reservations about his optimistic timeframe to have everyone in the top 4 priority groups, approximately 12-14 million adults, immunised within the next 6 weeks. Assuming all of these vaccines can be sourced, given the limitations in the fill and finish process (i.e. the packaging process prior to delivery to the vaccination centres), there is still uncertainty as to how the logistics of these 2 million vaccines per week will be operated.
“During this lockdown, we need to learn from the previous two lockdowns and ensure we support the vulnerable and elderly patients, identify and care for those at risk from unstable home life, and find a way to address the social inequalities, particularly amongst children that will now be missing out on further educational opportunities. We welcome the PM’s preservation of the support bubbles for those living alone, and offer of support for children who do not have access to the internet or technology to benefit from remote learning, however we are aware that these have been promised before and have failed to materialise in large cohorts of the population.
“The most important consideration, indeed the lynchpin on which the success of this lockdown relies, is the accompanying advice and exit strategy. It is important to highlight that this vaccination programme will not allow the return to normal life in February, as the majority of adults on which the economy depends are not in any of the 4 priority groups. Thus in 4-6 weeks’ time when the lockdown is reviewed, there is no guarantee that there will be a nationwide lifting of restrictions. In the presence of a more transmissible virus, we need a return to the “2 metre” rule; we need the “rule of 6”, which has clearly failed, to be abandoned in favour of a staged return to exclusive bubbles; and we will need an effective, fit for purpose, “Find, test, trace, isolate and support” programme in the hands of local public health experts rather than central commercial entities. The regional lockdown exit plan needs to come with limitations on travel across tier regions to ensure that areas doing well do not get re-seeded with resultant rises.”
Prof Neil Ferguson, Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, and NERVTAG member, said:
“The new variant made these measures inevitable and necessary. The next few weeks will show whether they are enough to suppress the much more transmissible new variant which is now predominating in the country.”
Prof Dame Til Wykes, Vice Dean Psychology and Systems Sciences, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, said:
“School closures have an impact on everyone – the children, the teachers and parents – education, family income and mental health are all affected. So the choice of closure can never be made lightly – but it is clearly the right decision to slow the transmission risk and save our NHS.
“NHS staff continue to need our support. We don’t need to clap for them, we just need to stay at home and follow all the rules. The evidence is that most people are being very careful, but there are still some who think that Covid-19 is a myth or that they are immortal – neither are true.
“What would help? For children the availability of cheap internet, better access to home computing as well as the confidence to use it, will all reduce the detrimental effects on families and improve remote learning. We also need to have available mental health support and reduce loneliness, which can lead to mental health difficulties, through community support. We did it before and we can do it again.”
Prof Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said:
“The new variant is a game changer and made the Prime Minister’s announcement of a full national lockdown for England almost inevitable.
“Given the estimates of the transmissibility of the new variant, this lockdown may not be as effective as the one last March. It may be that the best we can hope for is that the situation does not deteriorate further. We will have a better chance of achieving a better outcome if the Government doesn’t just focus on lockdown but puts effort into other measures to control the epidemic.
“The PM’s statement did not mention a range of measures that – even if they cannot spare us from some form of lockdown – can play a very big role in reducing the rate of transmission:
“The PM gave an ambitious target for vaccine roll out for priority groups by mid-February. Vaccinating groups will protect them from infection and disease. However, it will not be enough to achieve herd immunity so the virus would still be able to circulate in the general population in the absence of restrictions.
“Our exit from this new lockdown is likely to be slow and cautious.”
Prof Gary McLean, Professor in Molecular Immunology, London Metropolitan University, said:
“I listened to the PM announcement and totally agree with the restrictions now put in place. It was a very clear announcement that the virus is out of control and that with regret we need to re-enter lockdown similar to Spring 2020. The change now is that we have vaccines that could change the course of the pandemic. The other main feature that was of interest to me is that the government truly recognises the role of school aged children as vectors in continued spread and have closed schools for some time – this is very important.
“Finally, the message that we all must stick together and follow these conditions and help each other is absolutely vital. This came across very well to me and I sincerely hope that the people of the UK and in particular England will oxide and thereby restrict further transmissions and ultimately deaths from this terrible virus.
“All in all a very clear and logical speech by the PM and absolutely required at this time.”
Dr Wendy Sims-Schouten, Reader (Associate Professor) in Childhood Studies, University of Portsmouth, said:
“Children and young people living in families where the experiences of the previous lockdown may have been particularly difficult and challenging will require additional and targeted support with their mental health and wellbeing, especially in light of a new more restricted lockdown – these include young families, parents with long-term physical or mental health issues, families on low incomes or unemployed. Other groups at risk of higher depression and anxiety are young adults, people living alone and those living in urban areas.”
“The ongoing pandemic, lockdown and new variant of the coronavirus, combined with social media messages of children being ‘super-spreaders’ and adults (especially the elderly) as the vulnerable group, will cause intense concern, worries and anxieties for children, and have severe impact on their mental health and wellbeing. Worries about losing their parents, carers and loved ones to the virus, mixed messages from the Government about the different Tiers, lockdown and schools open/closed, social isolation, as well as uncertainties about exams, tests and school progress no doubt all have a potentially detrimental effect on children and young people’s wellbeing.”
“Social distancing and lockdown affect parents/carers and children from ethnic minority communities in specific ways, e.g. due to being in low paid ‘essential’ work, living in more densely populated/crowded situations, resulting in challenges with education and attainment. Existing inequalities are exacerbated by the pandemic and lockdown, such as in relation to teacher support/expectations, language barriers, socio-economic disadvantage and institutional racism, affecting children from a wide range of ethnic minority communities”.
“I work with Racial Equality Councils and we find that young people from ethnic minority communities have consistently worse mental health than other groups across every measure throughout the pandemic, with higher levels of depression, anxiety, thoughts of death or self-harm, reported rises in racial abuse, hate crime and loneliness, and lower life satisfaction and happiness.”
“Without any clear measures in place to support their specific needs and centralise their voices, this is likely to get worse. Current measures for support do not engage enough with the unique needs of children and families from a range of ethnic minority communities, once their voices are heard we can start by implementing support systems that centralise their needs.”
“What can we do: work with communities to develop policies and responses that take account of local circumstances and needs and build social cohesion, including trauma-informed practice and community-based support to enhance mental health and wellbeing.”
Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:
“Within the next few weeks, the UK will pass the grim marker of 100k COVID-19 deaths. This is an astonishing failure on the part of the UK government. Further interventions were needed several weeks ago, but we see again here the consequences of delayed policymaking from the government. Too many lives have been lost due to this inaction.
“We have another national lockdown. The shutting of schools is also sensible given the impact of the new variant and greater transmission within children. These new measures must be accompanied by appropriate packages of support to ensure vulnerable populations are reached and inequalities are not widened even further. For example, we know that some key workers roles are vital, but not paid well, and those workers find self-isolation difficult. Better and more accessible financial support can make self-isolation easier and help to reduce community transmission.
“Johnson stated that by mid-February, one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine would have been provided across the most vulnerable groups. We desperately need this target to be met, which would begin to allow for a much brighter situation after Easter.”
Dr Luke Allen, GP Academic Clinical Fellow, University of Oxford, said:
“This is devastating news, however the new restrictions are in proportion to the higher level of risk we are witnessing across the UK. The closure of schools has a massive societal impact, and there is an urgent need for research to quantify the risks and benefits of reopening schools ahead of the mooted schedule.
“The government also needs to issue crystal clear guidance around the numbers that will trigger relaxations.”
Dr Simon Kolstoe, School of Health and Care Professions at the University of Portsmouth, said:
“Hospital admissions are all that matters. If they are rising to the point of overwhelming the NHS it is clear that greater restrictions are needed. Rather than focussing on the number of positive COVID-19 tests in the community, I am glad that the focus is now directly on the number of people entering hospital. If this number is indeed rising as rapidly as we are being told, we must do something or else risk an acceleration of deaths if appropriate care cannot be provided. We do have evidence from March/April that a full lockdown does work, and hopefully the vaccine roll out will start to have an effect soon. The irritating thing is the government U-turning and giving conflicting messages on a daily basis. Unfortunately this undermines trust in the important advice that does need to be communicated and followed.”
Prof Lawrence S. Young, Virologist and Professor of Molecular Oncology at Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, said:
“This national lockdown was inevitable given the rising levels of infection and hospitalisations.
“The PM mentioned that the top 4 priority groups would be vaccinated by mid-February but this is only the first dose of the vaccine. What about the vital second dose? The first dose will not provide full protection and there is a concern that this could drive further changes in the virus. What about testing? There was nothing mentioned about testing and how this would be managed during the lockdown. Given all that we’ve heard a lot recently about rapid testing in schools and universities, how will this lockdown time be used to ensure that we get test, trace and isolate working effectively? It is essential that we use the lockdown period to improve surveillance as well as expediting the roll out of the vaccine.”
Dr Michael Bloomfield, Excellence Fellow, Head of Translational Psychiatry Research Group and Consultant Psychiatrist, University College London (UCL), said:
“There has been a huge gap between the rules and enforcement such that many people have been socialising in flagrant violation of existing rules. Clear and consistent guidance is needed to the public on the consequences of breaching the rules. “
Dr Isobel Ryder, Head of Nursing at the University of Portsmouth, said:
“Pandemic-fatigue is now evident in the general population and this is increasingly apparent both locally and Nationally – distancing measures do not appear to be having the same impact as the National lockdown in the spring of 2020. The new variant is more contagious and as a result of this and usual winter illnesses, the health sector is under extreme pressure. The medical and nursing workforce see the direct impact of this pandemic in a way that the general public do not. Many colleagues are stretched and exhausted by the ongoing physical and emotional demands of this pandemic, coupled with shift work, alongside their personal and family circumstances. Medical and nursing professionals may be relieved that this message is now articulated in a way that is more clear. The public now have to step up again and be responsible enough to take this information seriously. The challenging issues for those working in the NHS, health and care sector continue to be forming kind and caring relationships with extremely unwell patients, while managing difficult conversations with individuals, their families and colleagues, in incredibly difficult circumstances.”
Dr Emma Maynard, School of Education & Sociology, University of Portsmouth, said:
“The immediate closure of school sites is a huge issue for children and families, with significant risks of isolation, mental health stressors and learning loss. In particular news of the cancellation of public exams will be a major stress to families and it is essential that the government clarifies this as an absolute priority. I hope to see significant resourcing given to helping disadvantaged children regain lost ground, and that mental health support, already under-funded, is bolstered for the likely additional needs these children will experience as a result of the pandemic.”
Lea Milligan, CEO of MQ: Mental health research, said:
“It is only through research that we can fully understand the current situation and make informed decisions about what to do about it. The impact that the tight new restrictions going back into lockdown has on the mental health of the most vulnerable people is not yet known and cannot be without investment into research. That is why we are calling on the UK government to prioritise research into mental health at this pivotal moment in time.” –
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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