February 6, 2020

expert reaction to CMO confirming third case of the novel coronavirus in the UK

The Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for England, Prof Chris Whitty, has confirmed a third case of the novel coronavirus in the UK.

On the CMO confirming the patient caught the virus outside of mainland China

Prof William Keevil, Professor of Environmental Healthcare, University of Southampton, said:

“We should not be surprised that another case has been detected in the UK. The travel restrictions to China, and self-isolation and monitoring procedures here are working remarkably well. The focus of attention has been on travellers from China but the new case adds an extra dimension. Clearly, we should not focus all of our efforts on screening travellers with links to China, not least since there are small but increasing numbers of cases in other countries – particularly Asia. We should trust in our current recommendations and maintain what has so far been an effective containment and monitoring strategy.”

Dr Bharat Pankhania, Senior Clinical Lecturer, University of Exeter, said:

“According to the Chief Medical Officer, this new infection was acquired abroad and the patient then travelled to the UK. If the third case in the UK is travel-related but not from China, that is as we would expect. It’s a clear indication that this virus is now circulating in many countries. That tells us that our control containment policies of considering whether we quarantine incoming travellers will need to be reviewed, as infected people may be entering the UK from countries other than China. Our current policies have had a focus on people travelling from Wuhan and then more recently from China, but now that the virus is circulating in many other parts of the globe, we will also have to monitor and give clear advice to travellers arriving from other countries, especially where they have had several cases of coronavirus, such as Thailand. The fact that we do not have any additional cases that were contacts of the initial two in the UK signals that our control policies appear to be working, although it’s still early days so we must continue our vigilance. The most important factor is that people who know they are ill with relevant should withdraw from circulation and call their GP or 111 for advice.”

Dr Robin Thompson, Junior Research Fellow in Mathematical Epidemiology, University of Oxford, said:

“Given the number of infected individuals globally, it is likely that we will see more cases arriving in the UK. The most significant risk comes from individuals that have been in China. However, as case numbers increase outside of China, the risk of imported cases from elsewhere will also grow. Seeing a case that did not originate in China is therefore unsurprising.

“However, while imported cases are likely, what is less likely is sustained chains of transmission within the UK.

“If sustained chains of transmission occur in multiple countries around the world, then we will have a global pandemic. To prevent this from occurring, it is essential that individuals who develop symptoms that are consistent with coronavirus infection, however mild, self-isolate immediately.

On the CMO confirming there is a third case of the novel coronavirus in the UK

Dr Nathalie MacDermott, NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer, King’s College London (KCL), said:

“It is not surprising that there has been a third case of 2019-nCov identified in the UK, but it is reassuring that the Chief Medical Officer has confirmed that they did not acquire their infection in the UK. The UK NHS and public health service is well equipped to manage any cases of 2019-nCoV and this should not cause the public to be alarmed. The principles that have been circulated in the last few weeks by the Department of Health and Public Health England remain the same – anybody who has travelled from an affected area or had contact with a known case should self-isolate for 14 days and notify 111 of this. Anyone who is unwell and believes they have had contact with a case of 2019-nCoV should isolate themselves in their home and phone 111 or their GP surgery for further advice. For the rest of the public the best way to protect against any flu like illness is to ensure regular hand washing or use of a sanitiser gel.”

Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:

“It isn’t surprising that a third case has been identified. Whilst most infections are focused in Wuhan and the Hubei province, the virus has spread to all regions of China and therefore the likelihood of someone returning or visiting the UK with an infection has been real. The overall numbers of infections recorded here is still low, and importantly we have not seen significant, if any onward human-to-human transmission. We are at a key juncture in this outbreak and it is difficult to tell if the control efforts in China will be enough to bring this outbreak to an end. If not, we can expect to see the virus cropping up in many parts of the world, including here.”

Prof Ian Jones, Professor of Virology, University of Reading, said:

“The important thing is that it did not arise within the country.

“It didn’t come from the two cases that are already here but came from outside.

“It has been identified quickly, it has been isolated, and in all probability,  it will not lead to any further cases generally.”

Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:

“It is not surprising to see a third case, it has been expected that the UK would see more than just the two previous cases. Therefore, public health and NHS authorities will be well prepared to deal with and follow-up on this news.

“Clearly the outbreak is at a very important point, both globally and here in the UK. It looks at this stage like the infection is imported, rather than acquired through human-to-human transmission within the UK. So far, outside of China, there has been very limited human transmission of the coronavirus, which is good news in terms of potentially being able to contain the international spread.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-third-case-of-coronavirus-in-england

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/wuhan-coronavirus/

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